Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2007 Week 3 Recap

Game story

In Week 3 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-09-23, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 38–7 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +19.70 total EPA, and +21.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +19.70 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-16.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (9:14) 12-T.Brady up the middle to BUF 1 for 2 yards (97-J.McCargo). FUMBLES (97-J.McCargo), RECOVERED by BUF-97-J.McCargo at BUF 1. New England challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +19.70 total EPA · 30 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Moss · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.75 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.75 EPA/play
3. 3 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.14 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.19 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Gaffney · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.31 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.66 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Watson · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.12 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.56 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Parrish · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.95 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.47 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Brady · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.06 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.06 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Maroney · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.04 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — M. Lynch (Q1 47:50)
• New England Patriots — B. Watson (T. Brady pass) (Q2 35:12)
• New England Patriots — R. Moss (T. Brady pass) (Q2 31:20)
• New England Patriots — J. Gaffney (T. Brady pass) (Q3 21:26)
• New England Patriots — S. Morris (Q3 18:29)
• New England Patriots — R. Moss (T. Brady pass) (Q4 10:28)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 54:30)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 7 (Q1 54:30) — (9:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 8 (Q1 47:50) — (2:50) 23-M.Lynch left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 47:44) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q2 35:12) — (5:12) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 84-B.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 84-Watson 3rd straight game with a TD reception.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 35:08) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q2 31:20) — (1:20) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-R.Moss for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 4th career game vs. Buffalo, TD in all 4.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 31:17) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q3 21:26) — (6:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-J.Gaffney for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 21:22) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q3 18:29) — (3:29) 34-S.Morris up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 18:26) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 45 (Q4 10:28); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 10:22) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q2 39:14) — (9:14) 12-T.Brady up the middle to BUF 1 for 2 yards (97-J.McCargo). FUMBLES (97-J.McCargo), RECOVERED by BUF-97-J.McCargo at BUF 1. New England challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. [WPA -16.3% · EPA -4.68]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:55) — (13:55) 7-J.Losman sacked at BUF 35 for -9 yards (27-E.Hobbs). FUMBLES (27-E.Hobbs), RECOVERED by NE-97-J.Green at BUF 35. [WPA -14.8% · EPA -5.18]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 51:47) — (6:47) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short middle to 11-R.Parrish to NE 43 for 13 yards (21-R.Gay). [WPA +10.3% · EPA +2.18]
• New England Patriots (Q2 44:26) — (14:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-K.Faulk to BUF 23 for 6 yards (55-A.Crowell, 98-L.Tripplett). [WPA -8.9% · EPA -2.22]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 47:50) — (2:50) 23-M.Lynch left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.1% · EPA +3.19]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 6:09) — (6:09) 5-T.Edwards pass deep right intended for 81-P.Price INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Samuel at NE 46. 22-A.Samuel ran ob at BUF 12 for 42 yards. [WPA +0.0% · EPA -6.14]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:55) — (13:55) 7-J.Losman sacked at BUF 35 for -9 yards (27-E.Hobbs). FUMBLES (27-E.Hobbs), RECOVERED by NE-97-J.Green at BUF 35. [WPA -14.8% · EPA -5.18]
• New England Patriots (Q2 39:14) — (9:14) 12-T.Brady up the middle to BUF 1 for 2 yards (97-J.McCargo). FUMBLES (97-J.McCargo), RECOVERED by BUF-97-J.McCargo at BUF 1. New England challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. [WPA -16.3% · EPA -4.68]
• New England Patriots (Q4 10:28) — (10:28) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-R.Moss for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 1st receiver in NFL history to have 100+ rec yards in each of his 1st 3 games with a new team. NE 81-Moss 49th caree [WPA +0.0% · EPA +3.88]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 30 dropbacks · 76.7% completion · +21.7% CPOE · +0.66 EPA/play · +19.70 total EPA
• T.Edwards (Buffalo Bills) · 21 dropbacks · 47.6% completion · -6.7% CPOE · -0.41 EPA/play · -8.67 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.20 vs -0.21), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, -14.46 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, +16.83 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Edwards (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 54:30 · BUF 7 · Score 0-3
   (9:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 47:50 · NE 8 · Score 6-3
   (2:50) 23-M.Lynch left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 47:44 · NE 2 · Score 7-3
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 35:12 · BUF 8 · Score 7-9
   (5:12) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 84-B.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 84-Watson 3rd straight game with a TD reception.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 35:08 · BUF 2 · Score 7-10
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
6. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 31:20 · BUF 3 · Score 7-16
   (1:20) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-R.Moss for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 4th career game vs. Buffalo, TD in all 4.
7. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 31:17 · BUF 2 · Score 7-17
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
8. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 21:26 · BUF 4 · Score 7-23
   (6:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-J.Gaffney for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 21:22 · BUF 2 · Score 7-24
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 18:29 · BUF 4 · Score 7-30
    (3:29) 34-S.Morris up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 18:26 · BUF 2 · Score 7-31
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 10:28 · BUF 45 · Score 7-37
    (10:28) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-R.Moss for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 1st receiver in NFL history to have 100+ rec yards in each of his 1st 3 game
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 10:22 · BUF 2 · Score 7-38
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-6-C.Hanson.