Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins: 2010 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-12-19, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Miami Dolphins, pulling away with a 17–14 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Henne (Miami Dolphins) paced the passing game, with +3.49 total EPA, and +8.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.00 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-27.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Miami Dolphins changed the game: (1:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Carpenter 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +8.00 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Marshall · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +7.81 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Nelson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +7.72 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.57 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Henne · Miami Dolphins · Passing · +3.49 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.07 EPA/play
5. 5 St. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.46 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
6. 6 N. Roosevelt · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.37 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.12 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Bess · Miami Dolphins · Receiving · +2.44 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.59 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — D. Nelson (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q2 40:45)
• Miami Dolphins — R. Brown (Q2 32:43)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Fitzpatrick (Q3 21:20)
• Miami Dolphins — B. Marshall (C. Henne pass) (Q4 7:09)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 36:39)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 18 (Q2 40:45); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q2 40:37) — (Kick formation) 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the MIA 10 (Q2 36:39) — (6:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Lindell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q2 32:43) — (2:43) Direct snap to 23-R.Brown. 23-R.Brown right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 32:37) — (Kick formation) 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the MIA 15 (Q3 21:20) — (6:20) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 13-St. Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the MIA 2 (Q3 21:14) — (Kick formation) 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The fourth quarter: Miami Dolphins won the period 7–0. Miami Dolphins found the end zone from the BUF 9 (Q4 7:09) — (7:09) 7-C.Henne pass short right to 19-B.Marshall for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Miami Dolphins added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 7:02) — (Kick formation) 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Miami Dolphins (Q4 1:53) — (1:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Carpenter 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields. [WPA -27.1% · EPA -2.89]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:42) — (:42) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 13-St. Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-B.Sapp at MIA 38. 27-B.Sapp to MIA 43 for 5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at MIA 47. 27-B.Sapp to MIA 47 [WPA -17.9% · EPA -3.87]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 0:05) — (:05) (Shotgun) 7-C.Henne pass short left to 19-B.Marshall to MIA 35 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BUF-43-B.Scott at MIA 35. 43-B.Scott to MIA 18 for 17 yards. [WPA -11.4% · EPA -0.02]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:45) — (10:45) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 86-D.Nelson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-24-S.Smith, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced between downs. [WPA +11.1% · EPA +4.06]
• Miami Dolphins (Q2 30:20) — (:20) 7-C.Henne sacked at BUF 45 for -4 yards (sack split by 20-D.Whitner and 95-K.Williams). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -0.90]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:45) — (10:45) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 86-D.Nelson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-24-S.Smith, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced between downs. [WPA +11.1% · EPA +4.06]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:42) — (:42) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 13-St. Johnson INTERCEPTED by 27-B.Sapp at MIA 38. 27-B.Sapp to MIA 43 for 5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at MIA 47. 27-B.Sapp to MIA 47 [WPA -17.9% · EPA -3.87]
• Miami Dolphins (Q1 45:12) — (:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Henne pass short left intended for 38-P.Cobbs INTERCEPTED by 37-G.Wilson at MIA 44. 37-G.Wilson to MIA 35 for 9 yards (67-J.Berger). [WPA -10.2% · EPA -3.71]
• Miami Dolphins (Q4 1:53) — (1:53) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Carpenter 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields. [WPA -27.1% · EPA -2.89]

Quarterback report card

C.Henne led all passers in efficiency for Miami Dolphins, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Henne (Miami Dolphins) · 47 dropbacks · 70.2% completion · +8.5% CPOE · +0.07 EPA/play · +3.49 total EPA
• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 32 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +3.9% CPOE · +0.25 EPA/play · +8.00 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.03 vs -0.08), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, -1.90 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Miami Dolphins: 12 drives, -6.81 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Henne (MIA) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 40:45 · MIA 18 · Score 6-0
   (10:45) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 86-D.Nelson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-24-S.Smith, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced between
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 40:37 · MIA 2 · Score 7-0
   (Kick formation) 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 36:39 · MIA 10 · Score 10-0
   (6:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Lindell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q2 32:43 · BUF 6 · Score 10-6
   (2:43) Direct snap to 23-R.Brown. 23-R.Brown right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q2 32:37 · BUF 2 · Score 10-7
   (Kick formation) 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 21:20 · MIA 15 · Score 16-7
   (6:20) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 13-St. Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 21:14 · MIA 2 · Score 17-7
   (Kick formation) 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. Miami Dolphins TD (+6) — Q4 7:09 · BUF 9 · Score 17-13
   (7:09) 7-C.Henne pass short right to 19-B.Marshall for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Miami Dolphins XP (+1) — Q4 7:02 · BUF 2 · Score 17-14
   (Kick formation) 5-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-B.Fields.