Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2016 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-04, the Las Vegas Raiders took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 38–24 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -6.71 total EPA, and -11.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.24 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+14.2% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Las Vegas Raiders changed the game: (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Carr · Las Vegas Raiders · Passing · +10.24 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Gillislee · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +6.03 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Rivera · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +5.80 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.16 EPA/play
4. 4 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.16 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
5. 5 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.10 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Cooper · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.92 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Crabtree · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +2.78 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Taylor · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.16 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.16 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — M. Gillislee (Q2 43:31)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Taylor (Q3 29:08)
• Buffalo Bills — M. Gillislee (Q3 24:05)
• Las Vegas Raiders — M. Crabtree (D. Carr pass) (Q3 20:22)
• Las Vegas Raiders — L. Murray (Q3 16:01)
• Las Vegas Raiders — A. Cooper (D. Carr pass) (Q4 14:15)
• Las Vegas Raiders — L. Murray (Q4 8:37)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q1 53:06)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q1 49:40)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 33:01)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 30:05)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the LV 9 (Q1 53:06) — (8:06) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 29 (Q1 49:40) — (4:40) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–6. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 1 (Q2 43:31) — (13:31) 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q2 43:28) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 23 (Q2 33:01) — (3:01) 11-S.Janikowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 28 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 14–14. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 12 (Q3 29:08) — (14:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q3 29:03) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 2 (Q3 24:05) — (9:05) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 15 (Q3 24:01) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q3 20:22) — (5:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 20:17) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q3 16:01) — (1:01) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 15:57) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King..

The fourth quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 15–0. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 37 (Q4 14:15) — (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 14:08) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q4 8:37) — (8:37) (Shotgun) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 8:34) — (Shotgun) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 10-S.Roberts is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 14:15) — (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +3.79]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 14:37) — (14:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 81-M.Rivera to BUF 37 for 22 yards (30-C.White; 27-J.Ihedigbo). [WPA +13.8% · EPA +2.58]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 51:39) — (6:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 81-M.Rivera to BUF 26 for 26 yards (20-C.Graham, 30-C.White). [WPA +13.3% · EPA +2.80]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 29:53) — (14:53) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left guard to LV 12 for 54 yards (52-K.Mack, 38-T.Carrie). [WPA +10.9% · EPA +3.65]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 29:08) — (14:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.8% · EPA +2.16]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 3:29) — (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at LV 22 for -5 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LV-52-K.Mack at LV 22. 52-K.Mack to LV 23 for 1 yard (77-C.Glenn). [WPA -3.9% · EPA -5.44]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 10:53) — (10:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left intended for 88-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 20-N.Allen (52-K.Mack) at BUF 17. 20-N.Allen to BUF 16 for 1 yard (88-M.Goodwin). [WPA -4.3% · EPA -4.15]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 14:15) — (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +3.79]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 29:53) — (14:53) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left guard to LV 12 for 54 yards (52-K.Mack, 38-T.Carrie). [WPA +10.9% · EPA +3.65]

Quarterback report card

T.Taylor led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 44 dropbacks · 40.9% completion · -11.4% CPOE · -0.15 EPA/play · -6.71 total EPA
• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 38 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -8.7% CPOE · +0.27 EPA/play · +10.24 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Las Vegas Raiders held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.15 vs +0.02), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, +1.68 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 12 drives, +13.98 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Las Vegas Raiders leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Taylor (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• D. Carr (LV) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 53:06 · LV 9 · Score 3-0
   (8:06) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
2. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q1 49:40 · BUF 29 · Score 3-3
   (4:40) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 43:31 · LV 1 · Score 9-3
   (13:31) 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 43:28 · LV 15 · Score 10-3
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
5. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 33:01 · BUF 23 · Score 10-6
   (3:01) 11-S.Janikowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
6. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · BUF 28 · Score 10-9
   (:05) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 29:08 · LV 12 · Score 16-9
   (14:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 29:03 · LV 15 · Score 17-9
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 24:05 · LV 2 · Score 23-9
   (9:05) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 24:01 · LV 15 · Score 24-9
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
11. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q3 20:22 · BUF 3 · Score 24-15
    (5:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q3 20:17 · BUF 15 · Score 24-16
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
13. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q3 16:01 · BUF 1 · Score 24-22
    (1:01) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q3 15:57 · BUF 15 · Score 24-23
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
15. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 14:15 · BUF 37 · Score 24-29
    (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 14:08 · BUF 15 · Score 24-30
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
17. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 8:37 · BUF 3 · Score 24-36
    (8:37) (Shotgun) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Las Vegas Raiders Safety (+2) — Q4 8:34 · BUF 2 · Score 24-38
    (Shotgun) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Carr pass to 10-S.Roberts is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.