Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2014 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2014 NFL season on 2014-12-21, the Las Vegas Raiders took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 26–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 55 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Orton (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +4.57 total EPA, and -1.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, K. Thompkins (Las Vegas Raiders) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.08 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+15.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Las Vegas Raiders changed the game: (5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 18-A.Holmes to BUF 30 for 51 yards (20-C.Graham).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 K. Thompkins · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +7.08 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.18 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Orton · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +4.57 total EPA · 54 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Holmes · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +4.34 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Watkins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.86 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
5. 5 D. McFadden · Las Vegas Raiders · Rushing · +2.31 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Woods · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.16 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Carr · Las Vegas Raiders · Passing · +1.53 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play
8. 8 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.32 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — S. Watkins (K. Orton pass) (Q1 54:54)
• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Jones (D. Carr pass) (Q2 45:00)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Chandler (K. Orton pass) (Q4 15:00)
• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Olawale (D. Carr pass) (Q4 2:55)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Woods (K. Orton pass) (Q4 1:18)

Field goals

• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 38:14)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 31:15)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 30:05)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q3 25:22)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q3 17:41)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 42 (Q1 54:54) — (9:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q1 54:45) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The second quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 13–3. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-J.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 44:56) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 27 (Q2 38:14) — (8:14) 11-S.Janikowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 18 (Q2 31:15) — (1:15) 11-S.Janikowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the LV 36 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The third quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 6–0. Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 20 (Q3 25:22) — (10:22) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the BUF 31 (Q3 17:41) — (2:41) 11-S.Janikowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 28–27. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 29 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 84-S.Chandler for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q4 14:54) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q4 2:55) — (2:55) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 49-J.Olawale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 2:51); Buffalo Bills found the end zone (Q4 2:36) — Timeout #1 by BUF at 02:36.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone (Q4 2:36) — Timeout #1 by BUF at 02:36.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 29 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the BUF 29 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the LV 30 (Q4 1:18) — (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep right to 10-R.Woods for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-91-J.Tuck was injured during the play.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q4 1:09).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 5:07) — (5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 18-A.Holmes to BUF 30 for 51 yards (20-C.Graham). [WPA +15.4% · EPA +4.62]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 54:54) — (9:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +4.51]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 46:18) — (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 85-K.Thompkins to BUF 4 for 50 yards (23-A.Williams). [WPA +13.8% · EPA +5.00]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 8:22) — (8:22) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to LV 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds. [WPA -11.4% · EPA -1.28]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 84-S.Chandler for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.5% · EPA +3.76]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 46:18) — (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 85-K.Thompkins to BUF 4 for 50 yards (23-A.Williams). [WPA +13.8% · EPA +5.00]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 5:07) — (5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 18-A.Holmes to BUF 30 for 51 yards (20-C.Graham). [WPA +15.4% · EPA +4.62]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 54:54) — (9:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +4.51]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:18) — (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep right to 10-R.Woods for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-91-J.Tuck was injured during the play. [WPA +4.1% · EPA +4.16]

Quarterback report card

K.Orton led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Orton (Buffalo Bills) · 54 dropbacks · 59.3% completion · -1.7% CPOE · +0.08 EPA/play · +4.57 total EPA
• D.Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) · 35 dropbacks · 48.6% completion · -12.3% CPOE · +0.04 EPA/play · +1.53 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills -0.08, Las Vegas Raiders -0.04) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 14 drives, -6.81 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 14 drives, -4.00 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Las Vegas Raiders leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• K. Thompkins (Las Vegas Raiders) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Carr (LV) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 54:54 · LV 42 · Score 6-0
   (9:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 54:45 · LV 2 · Score 7-0
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
3. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · BUF 3 · Score 7-6
   (15:00) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-J.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 44:56 · BUF 2 · Score 7-7
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
5. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 38:14 · BUF 27 · Score 7-10
   (8:14) 11-S.Janikowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
6. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 31:15 · BUF 18 · Score 7-13
   (1:15) 11-S.Janikowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · LV 36 · Score 10-13
   (:05) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
8. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q3 25:22 · BUF 20 · Score 10-16
   (10:22) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
9. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q3 17:41 · BUF 31 · Score 10-19
   (2:41) 11-S.Janikowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · LV 29 · Score 16-19
    (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 84-S.Chandler for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 14:54 · LV 2 · Score 17-19
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
12. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 2:55 · BUF 1 · Score 17-25
    (2:55) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 49-J.Olawale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 2:51 · BUF 2 · Score 17-26
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub. PENALTY on BUF-52-P.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+7) — Q4 2:36 · Score 17-26
    Timeout #1 by BUF at 02:36.
15. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+10) — Q4 2:36 · Score 17-26
    Timeout #1 by BUF at 02:36.
16. Buffalo Bills TD (+7) — Q4 2:00 · BUF 29 · Score 17-26
    (2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
17. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+10) — Q4 2:00 · BUF 29 · Score 17-26
    (2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-8-M.Schaub.
18. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 1:18 · LV 30 · Score 23-26
    (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep right to 10-R.Woods for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-91-J.Tuck was injured during the play.
19. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 1:09 · LV 2 · Score 24-26
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. PENALTY on LV-91-J.Tuck, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.