Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2023 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-12-10, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, pulling away with a 20–17 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -2.95 total EPA, and -1.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Cook (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.13 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-15.2% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (11:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at BUF 41. 57-A.Epenesa to BUF 47 for 6 yards (15-P.Mahomes).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +7.13 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.43 EPA/play
2. 2 J. McKinnon · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +3.01 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +2.81 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.68 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Harty · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.63 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.63 EPA/play
6. 6 L. Murray · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.60 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.60 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.73 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
8. 8 Ju. Watson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.20 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.20 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (J. Allen pass) (Q1 48:48)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 41:58)
• Kansas City Chiefs — J. McKinnon (Q2 31:26)
• Kansas City Chiefs — R. Rice (P. Mahomes pass) (Q3 18:34)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q3 23:41)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q4 11:33)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 1:57)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 25 (Q1 48:48) — (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 48:43) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 13–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 6 (Q2 41:58) — (11:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 41:50) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q2 31:26) — (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 15 (Q2 31:19) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The third quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the KC 13 (Q3 23:41) — (8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q3 18:34) — (3:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 18:30) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 10 (Q4 11:33) — (11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the KC 21 (Q4 1:57) — (1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 56:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at BUF 41. 57-A.Epenesa to BUF 47 for 6 yards (15-P.Mahomes). [WPA -15.2% · EPA -6.34]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 5:41) — (5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 11-D.Harty to KC 40 for 25 yards (27-C.Conner). [WPA +14.5% · EPA +2.63]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 1:01) — (1:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce [56-L.Floyd]. [WPA -14.5% · EPA -2.21]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 15:38) — (:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to KC 48 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford). FUMBLES (47-C.Benford), touched at KC 49, RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at KC 48. [WPA -12.3% · EPA -4.45]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 2:17) — (2:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at KC 31 for -4 yards (56-G.Karlaftis). PENALTY on KC-35-Ja.Watson, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at KC 27 - No Play. [WPA +11.3% · EPA +1.34]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 56:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at BUF 41. 57-A.Epenesa to BUF 47 for 6 yards (15-P.Mahomes). [WPA -15.2% · EPA -6.34]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 15:38) — (:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to KC 48 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford). FUMBLES (47-C.Benford), touched at KC 49, RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at KC 48. [WPA -12.3% · EPA -4.45]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 31:26) — (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +3.8% · EPA +3.59]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:48) — (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.4% · EPA +3.28]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 51 dropbacks · 45.1% completion · -1.4% CPOE · -0.06 EPA/play · -2.95 total EPA
• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 47 dropbacks · 53.2% completion · -3.6% CPOE · -0.17 EPA/play · -8.22 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.03 vs -0.10), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, -2.51 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 10 drives, -8.13 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Cook (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 48:48 · KC 25 · Score 6-0
   (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 48:43 · KC 15 · Score 7-0
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 41:58 · KC 6 · Score 13-0
   (11:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 41:50 · KC 15 · Score 14-0
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
5. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 31:26 · BUF 7 · Score 14-6
   (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+7) — Q2 31:19 · BUF 15 · Score 14-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 23:41 · KC 13 · Score 17-7
   (8:41) 2-T.Bass 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
8. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 18:34 · BUF 4 · Score 17-13
   (3:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 18:30 · BUF 15 · Score 17-14
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
10. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 11:33 · BUF 10 · Score 17-17
    (11:33) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
11. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 1:57 · KC 21 · Score 20-17
    (1:57) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.