Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-11-29, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 30–22 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +11.18 total EPA, and -3.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, S. Watkins (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.37 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+14.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Maclin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 S. Watkins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +14.37 total EPA · 10 snaps · +1.44 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Smith · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +13.58 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Maclin · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +11.89 total EPA · 11 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Taylor · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +11.18 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.18 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Hogan · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.89 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Ware · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +1.26 total EPA · 21 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Wilson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +0.90 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — S. Watkins (T. Taylor pass) (Q1 46:10)
• Kansas City Chiefs — S. Ware (Q2 37:01)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Watkins (T. Taylor pass) (Q2 32:35)
• Kansas City Chiefs — J. Maclin (A. Smith pass) (Q2 31:54)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (A. Smith pass) (Q3 26:21)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (T. Taylor pass) (Q3 18:15)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q1 56:57)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Santos (Q3 23:12)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Santos (Q4 13:05)
• Kansas City Chiefs — C. Santos (Q4 3:34)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the KC 9 (Q1 56:57) — (11:57) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 28 (Q1 46:10) — (1:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q1 46:04) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 14–6. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q2 37:01) — (7:01) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-71-J.Allen was injured during the play.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 36:57) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 21 (Q2 32:35) — (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 41 (Q2 31:54) — (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Maclin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 31:48) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The third quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 10–6. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BUF 15 (Q3 26:21) — (11:21) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 26:15) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 31 (Q3 23:12) — (8:12) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the KC 10 (Q3 18:15) — (3:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 25-L.McCoy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 6–0. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 20 (Q4 13:05) — (13:05) 5-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BUF 19 (Q4 3:34) — (3:34) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 31:54) — (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Maclin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.6% · EPA +4.37]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 52:28) — (7:28) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle to KC 31 for 3 yards (92-D.Poe). FUMBLES (92-D.Poe), RECOVERED by KC-96-J.Howard at KC 25. 96-J.Howard to KC 25 for no gain (66-S.Henderson). [WPA -13.0% · EPA -4.96]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:35) — (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.5% · EPA +3.86]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q3 27:33) — (12:33) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 19-J.Maclin to BUF 19 for 32 yards (24-S.Gilmore). [WPA +12.3% · EPA +2.44]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:39) — (13:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins to KC 15 for 48 yards (29-E.Berry). [WPA +10.5% · EPA +3.33]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 52:28) — (7:28) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle to KC 31 for 3 yards (92-D.Poe). FUMBLES (92-D.Poe), RECOVERED by KC-96-J.Howard at KC 25. 96-J.Howard to KC 25 for no gain (66-S.Henderson). [WPA -13.0% · EPA -4.96]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 31:54) — (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Maclin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.6% · EPA +4.37]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 24:50) — (9:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at BUF 31 for -8 yards (91-T.Hali). FUMBLES (91-T.Hali) [91-T.Hali], RECOVERED by KC-92-D.Poe at BUF 34. 92-D.Poe to BUF 34 for no gain (64-R.Incognito). [WPA -7.7% · EPA -4.26]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:35) — (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.5% · EPA +3.86]

Quarterback report card

T.Taylor led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 46 dropbacks · 45.7% completion · -3.7% CPOE · +0.24 EPA/play · +11.18 total EPA
• A.Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) · 37 dropbacks · 51.4% completion · +6.5% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +13.58 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Kansas City Chiefs held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.16 vs +0.07), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +5.83 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 11 drives, +12.57 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• S. Watkins (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Taylor (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• A. Smith (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 56:57 · KC 9 · Score 3-0
   (11:57) 2-D.Carpenter 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 46:10 · KC 28 · Score 9-0
   (1:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 46:04 · KC 15 · Score 10-0
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
4. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 37:01 · BUF 3 · Score 10-6
   (7:01) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-71-J.Allen was injured during the play.
5. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 36:57 · BUF 15 · Score 10-7
   5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 32:35 · KC 21 · Score 16-7
   (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 14-S.Watkins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 31:54 · BUF 41 · Score 16-13
   (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Maclin for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 31:48 · BUF 15 · Score 16-14
   5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
9. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 26:21 · BUF 15 · Score 16-20
   (11:21) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q3 26:15 · BUF 15 · Score 16-21
    5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
11. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q3 23:12 · BUF 31 · Score 16-24
    (8:12) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 18:15 · KC 10 · Score 22-24
    (3:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 25-L.McCoy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 13:05 · BUF 20 · Score 22-27
    (13:05) 5-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
14. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q4 3:34 · BUF 19 · Score 22-30
    (3:34) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.