Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: 2019 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2019 NFL season on 2020-01-04, the Houston Texans took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 22–19 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -4.84 total EPA, and -9.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Singletary (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.01 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+37.5% win probability) landed in overtime when Houston Texans changed the game: (4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips].

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.01 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Stills · Houston Texans · Receiving · +4.42 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.33 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Fells · Houston Texans · Receiving · +3.61 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Johnson · Houston Texans · Rushing · +3.01 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Brown · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +2.36 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.36 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.36 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.36 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.96 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (J. Brown pass) (Q1 56:51)
• Houston Texans — D. Watson (Q3 16:41)
• Houston Texans — C. Hyde (D. Watson pass) (Q4 4:42)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q2 40:52)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q2 30:09)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q3 21:08)
• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (Q4 11:00)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q4 0:10)
• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (OT 3:23)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the HOU 16 (Q1 56:51) — (11:51) (Shotgun) 15-J.Brown pass short left to 17-J.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q1 56:41) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the HOU 22 (Q2 40:52) — (10:52) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the HOU 22 (Q2 30:09) — (:09) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The third quarter: Houston Texans won the period 8–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the HOU 20 (Q3 21:08) — (6:08) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the BUF 20 (Q3 16:41); Houston Texans registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q3 16:33) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Watson rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: Houston Texans won the period 11–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the BUF 23 (Q4 11:00) — (11:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the BUF 5 (Q4 4:42) — (4:42) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 23-C.Hyde for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 4:37) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Watson pass to 10-D.Hopkins is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the HOU 29 (Q4 0:10) — (:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

Overtime: Houston Texans won the period 3–0. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the BUF 10 (OT 3:23) — (3:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Houston Texans (OT 4:16) — (4:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-T.Jones to BUF 10 for 34 yards (29-K.Johnson) [97-J.Phillips]. [WPA +37.5% · EPA +0.48]
• Buffalo Bills (OT 12:36) — (12:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox ran ob at BUF 42 for 14 yards (22-G.Conley). [WPA +25.1% · EPA +2.69]
• Houston Texans (OT 6:56) — (6:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 25-D.Johnson to HOU 37 for 18 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 33-S.Neal). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling [WPA +22.6% · EPA +2.55]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:10) — (:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. [WPA +21.8% · EPA +0.70]
• Houston Texans (Q4 1:21) — (1:21) 4-D.Watson up the middle to BUF 30 for no gain (98-S.Lotulelei). [WPA -21.5% · EPA -2.00]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Houston Texans (Q3 25:06) — (10:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 37 for 5 yards (27-T.White; 23-M.Hyde). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-49-T.Edmunds at HOU 38. Penalty on HOU-66-N.Martin, U [WPA -6.0% · EPA -4.90]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 14:18) — (14:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 43 for -4 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], RECOVERED by HOU-54-J.Martin at 50. 54-J.Martin to 50 for no gain (67-Q.Spain). [WPA -7.5% · EPA -3.87]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:12) — (13:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to HOU 20 for 42 yards (37-J.Addae). [WPA +12.4% · EPA +3.54]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:41) — (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 39 for -19 yards (54-J.Martin). [WPA -21.0% · EPA -3.42]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 52 dropbacks · 46.2% completion · -9.2% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -4.84 total EPA
• D.Watson (Houston Texans) · 40 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +13.9% CPOE · -0.01 EPA/play · -0.57 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills -0.04, Houston Texans -0.05) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, -4.00 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Houston Texans: 13 drives, -4.33 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Singletary (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• D. Watson (HOU) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 56:51 · HOU 16 · Score 6-0
   (11:51) (Shotgun) 15-J.Brown pass short left to 17-J.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 56:41 · HOU 15 · Score 7-0
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 40:52 · HOU 22 · Score 10-0
   (10:52) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
4. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:09 · HOU 22 · Score 13-0
   (:09) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 21:08 · HOU 20 · Score 16-0
   (6:08) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
6. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q3 16:41 · BUF 20 · Score 16-6
   (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruli
7. Houston Texans Safety (+2) — Q3 16:33 · BUF 2 · Score 16-8
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Watson rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
8. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 11:00 · BUF 23 · Score 16-11
   (11:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
9. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 4:42 · BUF 5 · Score 16-17
   (4:42) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 23-C.Hyde for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Houston Texans Safety (+2) — Q4 4:37 · BUF 2 · Score 16-19
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Watson pass to 10-D.Hopkins is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
11. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:10 · HOU 29 · Score 19-19
    (:10) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
12. Houston Texans FG (+3) — OT 3:23 · BUF 10 · Score 19-22
    (3:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.