Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: 2006 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-11-19, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Houston Texans, pulling away with a 24–21 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Losman (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +15.04 total EPA, and +1.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, L. Evans (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +23.66 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+48.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass to 81-P.Price for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Review Assistant and Upheld.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 L. Evans · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +23.66 total EPA · 11 snaps · +2.15 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Losman · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +15.04 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
3. 3 E. Moulds · Houston Texans · Receiving · +6.84 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.37 EPA/play
4. 4 P. Price · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.33 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.17 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Johnson · Houston Texans · Receiving · +3.95 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
6. 6 W. Lundy · Houston Texans · Rushing · +2.94 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Gado · Houston Texans · Rushing · +2.44 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Walter · Houston Texans · Rushing · +1.92 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.92 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — L. Evans (J. Losman pass) (Q1 57:33)
• Buffalo Bills — L. Evans (J. Losman pass) (Q1 51:46)
• Houston Texans — W. Lundy (Q1 48:08)
• Houston Texans — S. Gado (Q2 36:04)
• Houston Texans — D. Robinson (Q3 22:08)
• Buffalo Bills — P. Price (J. Losman pass) (Q4 0:13)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 42:17)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the HOU 83 (Q1 57:33) — (12:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass deep left to 83-L.Evans for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q1 57:21) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the HOU 83 (Q1 51:46) — (6:46) 7-J.Losman pass deep left to 83-L.Evans for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q1 51:35) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q1 48:08) — (3:08) 33-W.Lundy right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 48:02) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-7-C.Stanley..

The second quarter: Houston Texans won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the HOU 22 (Q2 42:17) — (12:17) 9-R.Lindell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 36:04) — (6:04) 35-S.Gado right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 36:01) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-7-C.Stanley..

The third quarter: Houston Texans won the period 7–0. Houston Texans found the end zone from the HOU 94 (Q3 22:08) — (7:08) 7-J.Losman pass short left intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Robinson at BUF 9. 23-D.Robinson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 22:02) — 3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-7-C.Stanley..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the HOU 15 (Q4 0:13) — (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass to 81-P.Price for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Review Assistant and Upheld.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q4 0:09) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:13) — (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass to 81-P.Price for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Review Assistant and Upheld. [WPA +48.3% · EPA +4.02]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:08) — (7:08) 7-J.Losman pass short left intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Robinson at BUF 9. 23-D.Robinson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -22.2% · EPA -5.05]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 57:33) — (12:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass deep left to 83-L.Evans for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.8% · EPA +7.97]
• Houston Texans (Q2 31:23) — (1:23) 8-D.Carr pass short right to 43-J.Cook to BUF 7 for 6 yards (30-K.Simpson). FUMBLES (30-K.Simpson), RECOVERED by BUF-22-N.Clements at BUF 6. 22-N.Clements ran ob at BUF 16 for 10 yards. [WPA -17.9% · EPA -5.13]
• Houston Texans (Q2 32:17) — (2:17) 8-D.Carr pass deep left to 84-E.Moulds ran ob at BUF 23 for 22 yards (30-K.Simpson). [WPA +13.9% · EPA +2.54]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 57:33) — (12:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass deep left to 83-L.Evans for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.8% · EPA +7.97]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 51:46) — (6:46) 7-J.Losman pass deep left to 83-L.Evans for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.5% · EPA +6.82]
• Houston Texans (Q2 31:23) — (1:23) 8-D.Carr pass short right to 43-J.Cook to BUF 7 for 6 yards (30-K.Simpson). FUMBLES (30-K.Simpson), RECOVERED by BUF-22-N.Clements at BUF 6. 22-N.Clements ran ob at BUF 16 for 10 yards. [WPA -17.9% · EPA -5.13]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:08) — (7:08) 7-J.Losman pass short left intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Robinson at BUF 9. 23-D.Robinson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -22.2% · EPA -5.05]

Quarterback report card

J.Losman led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Losman (Buffalo Bills) · 41 dropbacks · 63.4% completion · +1.6% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +15.04 total EPA
• D.Carr (Houston Texans) · 38 dropbacks · 65.8% completion · +12.4% CPOE · -0.10 EPA/play · -3.75 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.09 vs +0.02), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, +7.05 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Houston Texans: 13 drives, +1.71 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• L. Evans (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Carr (HOU) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 57:33 · HOU 83 · Score 6-0
   (12:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass deep left to 83-L.Evans for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 57:21 · HOU 2 · Score 7-0
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 51:46 · HOU 83 · Score 13-0
   (6:46) 7-J.Losman pass deep left to 83-L.Evans for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 51:35 · HOU 2 · Score 14-0
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
5. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 48:08 · BUF 17 · Score 14-6
   (3:08) 33-W.Lundy right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 48:02 · BUF 2 · Score 14-7
   3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-7-C.Stanley.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 42:17 · HOU 22 · Score 17-7
   (12:17) 9-R.Lindell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 36:04 · BUF 1 · Score 17-13
   (6:04) 35-S.Gado right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 36:01 · BUF 2 · Score 17-14
   3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-7-C.Stanley.
10. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q3 22:08 · HOU 94 · Score 17-20
    (7:08) 7-J.Losman pass short left intended for 83-L.Evans INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Robinson at BUF 9. 23-D.Robinson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q3 22:02 · BUF 2 · Score 17-21
    3-K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-7-C.Stanley.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 0:13 · HOU 15 · Score 23-21
    (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass to 81-P.Price for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Review Assistant and Upheld.
13. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 0:09 · HOU 2 · Score 24-21
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.