Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-11-24, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Detroit Lions, pulling away with a 28–25 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 26 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +5.21 total EPA, and -4.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A.St. Brown (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.63 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+23.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Detroit Lions changed the game: (:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A.St. Brown · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +11.63 total EPA · 10 snaps · +1.16 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Goff · Detroit Lions · Passing · +6.23 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +5.21 total EPA · 53 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
4. 4 I. McKenzie · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.00 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.40 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
6. 6 G. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.20 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Goff · Detroit Lions · Rushing · +2.25 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.25 EPA/play
8. 8 St. Brown · Detroit Lions · Rushing · +2.06 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.06 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Detroit Lions — unlisted player (Q1 51:47)
• Buffalo Bills — I. McKenzie (J. Allen pass) (Q1 47:04)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 38:00)
• Detroit Lions — A. St (J. Goff pass) (Q2 31:55)
• Detroit Lions — D. Chark (J. Goff pass) (Q4 13:52)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q4 2:44)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 30:05)
• Buffalo Bills — unlisted player (Q2 30:00)
• Detroit Lions — M. Badgley (Q4 0:28)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 0:07)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 0:02)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q1 51:47) — (6:47) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 51:44) — 17-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DET 19 (Q1 47:04) — (2:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 6-I.McKenzie for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q1 46:58) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 13–13. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DET 3 (Q2 38:00) — (8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen to DET 8 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at DET 8. 17-J.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DET 15 (Q2 37:55) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 31:55) — (1:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the BUF 15 (Q2 31:52) — 17-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DET 28 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal (Q2 30:00) — END QUARTER 2.

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 2–0. Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the BUF 97 (Q3 24:11) — (9:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -3 yards, SAFETY (91-E.Oliver)..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 12–11. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q4 13:52) — (13:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 4-D.Chark for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 13:47) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 32-D.Swift rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DET 5 (Q4 2:44) — (2:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions connected on a field goal from the BUF 33 (Q4 0:28) — (:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DET 27 (Q4 0:07) — (:07) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the BUF 35 (Q4 0:02).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:45) — (:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer). [WPA +23.1% · EPA +2.06]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:28) — (:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. [WPA +19.2% · EPA +1.19]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:32) — (:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Chark. [WPA -18.7% · EPA -1.35]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:23) — (:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to DET 39 for 36 yards (5-D.Elliott). [WPA +17.9% · EPA +1.65]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 25:02) — (10:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone (44-M.Rodriguez) [96-I.Buggs] at DET 4. 34-A.Anzalone to DET 8 for 4 yards (26-D.Singletary). [WPA -14.9% · EPA -5.60]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 25:02) — (10:02) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone (44-M.Rodriguez) [96-I.Buggs] at DET 4. 34-A.Anzalone to DET 8 for 4 yards (26-D.Singletary). [WPA -14.9% · EPA -5.60]
• Detroit Lions (Q2 43:28) — (13:28) 30-Ja.Williams left tackle to BUF 41 for no gain (91-E.Oliver; 47-C.Benford). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), touched at BUF 41, RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at BUF 42. [WPA -10.1% · EPA -4.98]
• Detroit Lions (Q3 17:00) — (2:00) 17-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. [WPA -14.1% · EPA -3.69]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 47:04) — (2:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 6-I.McKenzie for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.0% · EPA +3.31]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 53 dropbacks · 45.3% completion · -4.2% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +5.21 total EPA
• J.Goff (Detroit Lions) · 40 dropbacks · 57.5% completion · -3.2% CPOE · +0.16 EPA/play · +6.23 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills +0.09, Detroit Lions +0.06) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +8.31 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Detroit Lions: 11 drives, +4.85 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A.St. Brown (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Goff (DET) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q1 51:47 · BUF 2 · Score 0-6
   (6:47) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q1 51:44 · BUF 15 · Score 0-7
   17-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 47:04 · DET 19 · Score 6-7
   (2:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 6-I.McKenzie for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 46:58 · DET 15 · Score 7-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 38:00 · DET 3 · Score 13-7
   (8:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen to DET 8 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at DET 8. 17-J.Allen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 37:55 · DET 15 · Score 14-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
7. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 31:55 · BUF 1 · Score 14-13
   (1:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Detroit Lions TD (+7) — Q2 31:52 · BUF 15 · Score 14-14
   17-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
9. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · DET 28 · Score 17-14
   (:05) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
10. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:00 · Score 17-14
    END QUARTER 2
11. Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q3 24:11 · BUF 97 · Score 19-14
    (9:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -3 yards, SAFETY (91-E.Oliver).
12. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 13:52 · BUF 1 · Score 19-20
    (13:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 4-D.Chark for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Detroit Lions Safety (+2) — Q4 13:47 · BUF 2 · Score 19-22
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 32-D.Swift rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 2:44 · DET 5 · Score 25-22
    (2:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Detroit Lions FG (+3) — Q4 0:28 · BUF 33 · Score 25-25
    (:28) 17-M.Badgley 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
16. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:07 · DET 27 · Score 28-25
    (:07) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
17. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:02 · BUF 35 · Score 28-25
    2-T.Bass kicks 46 yards from BUF 35 to DET 19. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at DET 28, and recovers at DET 28. 11-K.Raymond to DET 32 f