Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2014 NFL season on 2014-10-05, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Detroit Lions, pulling away with a 17–14 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 11 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Orton (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +0.23 total EPA, and +1.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, G. Tate (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.94 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-25.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Detroit Lions changed the game: (:26) 5-A.Henery 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 G. Tate · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +6.94 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Goodwin · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.39 total EPA · 1 snaps · +4.39 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.31 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Woods · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.07 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Fuller · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +1.06 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Gragg · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.73 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Hogan · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.63 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Ross · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +0.35 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Detroit Lions — G. Tate (M. Stafford pass) (Q1 45:09)
• Detroit Lions — R. Mathis (Q2 43:53)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Gragg (K. Orton pass) (Q4 9:25)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 36:45)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q3 16:26)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q4 0:09)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 7–0. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the BUF 9 (Q1 45:09) — (:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 15-G.Tate for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 45:05) — 5-A.Henery extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 7–3. Detroit Lions found the end zone from the DET 62 (Q2 43:53); Detroit Lions added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 43:44) — 5-A.Henery extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DET 27 (Q2 36:45) — (6:45) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DET 7 (Q3 16:26) — (1:26) 2-D.Carpenter 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 11–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DET 2 (Q4 9:25) — (9:25) 75-C.Hairston reported in as eligible. 18-K.Orton pass short left to 89-C.Gragg for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the DET 2 (Q4 9:23) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-F.Jackson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DET 40 (Q4 0:09) — (:09) 2-D.Carpenter 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Detroit Lions (Q4 0:26) — (:26) 5-A.Henery 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. [WPA -25.1% · EPA -2.77]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:09) — (:09) 2-D.Carpenter 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. [WPA +21.2% · EPA +1.42]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 1:02) — (1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 15-G.Tate to BUF 34 for 55 yards (37-N.Robey). [WPA +21.2% · EPA +2.68]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:21) — (:21) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to DET 40 for 20 yards (31-R.Mathis). [WPA +16.0% · EPA +0.35]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 9:57) — (9:57) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin to DET 4 for 42 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at DET 4. [WPA +14.1% · EPA +4.39]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 43:53) — (13:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left intended for 14-S.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Mathis at BUF 41. 31-R.Mathis for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -13.6% · EPA -8.66]
• Detroit Lions (Q2 40:33) — (10:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 21-R.Bush INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at BUF 28. 24-S.Gilmore pushed ob at BUF 49 for 21 yards (15-G.Tate). [WPA -4.6% · EPA -5.71]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 9:57) — (9:57) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin to DET 4 for 42 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at DET 4. [WPA +14.1% · EPA +4.39]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 23:46) — (8:46) 2-D.Carpenter 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. [WPA -3.3% · EPA -4.21]

Quarterback report card

K.Orton led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Orton (Buffalo Bills) · 45 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +1.9% CPOE · +0.01 EPA/play · +0.23 total EPA
• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 43 dropbacks · 41.9% completion · -12.5% CPOE · -0.19 EPA/play · -8.09 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.20 vs -0.31), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 14 drives, -18.69 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Detroit Lions: 16 drives, -25.05 total EPA, 1 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• G. Tate (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Stafford (DET) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q1 45:09 · BUF 9 · Score 0-6
   (:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 15-G.Tate for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q1 45:05 · BUF 2 · Score 0-7
   5-A.Henery extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
3. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 43:53 · DET 62 · Score 0-13
   (13:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short left intended for 14-S.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Mathis at BUF 41. 31-R.Mathis for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q2 43:44 · BUF 2 · Score 0-14
   5-A.Henery extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 36:45 · DET 27 · Score 3-14
   (6:45) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
6. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 16:26 · DET 7 · Score 6-14
   (1:26) 2-D.Carpenter 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 9:25 · DET 2 · Score 12-14
   (9:25) 75-C.Hairston reported in as eligible. 18-K.Orton pass short left to 89-C.Gragg for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q4 9:23 · DET 2 · Score 14-14
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-F.Jackson rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
9. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:09 · DET 40 · Score 17-14
   (:09) 2-D.Carpenter 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.