Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos: 2020 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season on 2020-12-19, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 48–19 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +27.70 total EPA, and +12.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +27.70 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+10.0% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (8:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at DEN 31 for 15 yards. Penalty on DEN-41-D.Bausby, Illegal Contact, declined.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +27.70 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.55 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +12.08 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Beasley · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +7.85 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.78 EPA/play
4. 4 N. Fant · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.38 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Gordon · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +5.14 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Kumerow · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.95 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.95 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.71 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
8. 8 G. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.32 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q1 49:12)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 40:37)
• Denver Broncos — M. Gordon (Q2 36:34)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Kumerow (J. Allen pass) (Q2 31:54)
• Denver Broncos — N. Fant (D. Lock pass) (Q2 30:11)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Bates (Q3 26:05)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Hughes (Q3 25:58)
• Denver Broncos — M. Gordon (Q4 1:56)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Singletary (Q4 1:51)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q3 15:48)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 5:50)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 9 (Q1 49:12) — (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q1 49:05) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–13. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 24 (Q2 40:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 40:30) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BUF 10 (Q2 36:34) — (6:34) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 36:28) — 1-T.Russolino extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 22 (Q2 31:54) — (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 87-J.Kumerow for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 31:49) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q2 30:11) — (:11) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 17–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q3 26:05) — (11:05) 71-R.Bates and 77-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q3 25:58) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 75 (Q3 25:58); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q3 25:41) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 9 (Q3 15:48) — (:48) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–6. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 9 (Q4 5:50) — (5:50) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q4 1:56); Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 51 (Q4 1:51) — (1:51) 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q4 1:40) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 53:12) — (8:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at DEN 31 for 15 yards. Penalty on DEN-41-D.Bausby, Illegal Contact, declined. [WPA +10.0% · EPA +2.45]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 57:24) — (12:24) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock scrambles up the middle to BUF 36 for 13 yards (24-T.Johnson). [WPA +8.8% · EPA +2.10]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 36:34) — (6:34) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.5% · EPA +3.26]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 55:15) — (10:15) 1-T.Russolino 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. [WPA -6.4% · EPA -2.89]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.2% · EPA +3.55]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q3 25:58) — (10:58) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 19 for -6 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White) [27-T.White], RECOVERED by BUF-55-J.Hughes at DEN 21. 55-J.Hughes for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -6.0% · EPA -8.43]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:51) — (1:51) 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +0.0% · EPA +4.94]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 39:38) — (9:38) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-46-J.Bobenmoyer at BUF 35. [WPA +6.1% · EPA +4.72]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:05) — (7:05) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Moss up the middle to DEN 4 for no gain (45-A.Johnson, 96-S.Harris). Buffalo challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. T [WPA -0.6% · EPA -4.24]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 50 dropbacks · 56.0% completion · +12.1% CPOE · +0.55 EPA/play · +27.70 total EPA
• D.Lock (Denver Broncos) · 40 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -11.2% CPOE · -0.29 EPA/play · -11.63 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.38 vs -0.06), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, +33.54 total EPA, 7 scoring drives
• Denver Broncos: 12 drives, -5.20 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Lock (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 49:12 · DEN 9 · Score 6-0
   (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 49:05 · DEN 15 · Score 7-0
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 40:37 · DEN 24 · Score 13-0
   (10:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 40:30 · DEN 15 · Score 14-0
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
5. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 36:34 · BUF 10 · Score 14-6
   (6:34) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 36:28 · BUF 15 · Score 14-7
   1-T.Russolino extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 31:54 · DEN 22 · Score 20-7
   (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 87-J.Kumerow for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 31:49 · DEN 15 · Score 21-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 30:11 · BUF 6 · Score 21-13
   (:11) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 26:05 · DEN 1 · Score 27-13
    (11:05) 71-R.Bates and 77-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 25:58 · DEN 15 · Score 28-13
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 25:58 · BUF 75 · Score 34-13
    (10:58) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 19 for -6 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White) [27-T.White], RECOVERED by BUF-55-J.Hughes at DEN 21. 55-J.Hughes fo
13. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 25:41 · DEN 15 · Score 35-13
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
14. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 15:48 · DEN 9 · Score 38-13
    (:48) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
15. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 5:50 · DEN 9 · Score 41-13
    (5:50) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
16. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 1:56 · BUF 8 · Score 41-19
    (1:56) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to BUF 1 for 7 yards (54-A.Klein). FUMBLES (54-A.Klein), recovered by DEN-66-D.Risner at BUF 1. The Replay Official r
17. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 1:51 · DEN 51 · Score 47-19
    (1:51) 26-D.Singletary left tackle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 1:40 · DEN 15 · Score 48-19
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.