Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos: 2008 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2008 NFL season on 2008-12-21, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 30–23 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Cutler (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with +8.36 total EPA, and -1.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Edwards (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.37 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+23.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep right to 22-F.Jackson to DEN 3 for 65 yards (32-D.Bly).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Edwards · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +12.37 total EPA · 28 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Cutler · Denver Broncos · Passing · +8.36 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
3. 3 E. Royal · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +6.17 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
4. 4 F. Jackson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.42 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.81 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Graham · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +4.76 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.59 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Marshall · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +4.75 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
7. 7 E. Royal · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +4.29 total EPA · 1 snaps · +4.29 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Reed · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.01 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — J. Cutler (Q1 55:38)
• Buffalo Bills — M. Lynch (Q2 30:19)
• Denver Broncos — J. Cutler (Q3 15:44)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Edwards (Q4 12:50)
• Buffalo Bills — F. Jackson (Q4 9:00)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q1 50:01)
• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q2 43:17)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 37:48)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q3 24:58)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q3 20:02)
• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q4 11:08)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q1 55:38) — (10:38) 6-J.Cutler left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-89-D.Graham was injured during the play.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 55:32) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the BUF 5 (Q1 50:01) — (5:01) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–3. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the BUF 12 (Q2 43:17) — (13:17) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 19 (Q2 37:48) — (7:48) 9-R.Lindell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 2 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) 23-M.Lynch left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 30:15) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–6. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 30 (Q3 24:58) — (9:58) 9-R.Lindell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 10 (Q3 20:02) — (5:02) 9-R.Lindell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q3 15:44) — (:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 15:38) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 3 (Q4 12:50) — (12:50) 5-T.Edwards pass short left to 13-St.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 12:47) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the BUF 25 (Q4 11:08) — (11:08) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 8 (Q4 9:00) — (9:00) 22-F.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 8:54) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep right to 22-F.Jackson to DEN 3 for 65 yards (32-D.Bly). [WPA +23.3% · EPA +5.05]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 9:00) — (9:00) 22-F.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +1.85]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 18:57) — (3:57) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right to 89-D.Graham to BUF 42 for 23 yards (28-L.McKelvin). [WPA +14.5% · EPA +3.20]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 5:42) — (5:42) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 59-K.Mitchell at BUF 1. 59-K.Mitchell to BUF 2 for 1 yard (15-B.Marshall). [WPA -13.3% · EPA -2.73]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 0:39) — (:39) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short middle to 14-B.Stokley (27-R.Corner). [WPA -12.5% · EPA -2.48]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep right to 22-F.Jackson to DEN 3 for 65 yards (32-D.Bly). [WPA +23.3% · EPA +5.05]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 51:31) — (6:31) 19-E.Royal left end to BUF 9 for 71 yards (24-T.McGee). [WPA +8.9% · EPA +4.29]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 39:42) — (9:42) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short left to 11-R.Parrish pushed ob at DEN 32 for 14 yards (36-J.Barrett). DEN-33-M.Manuel was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-92-E.Dumervil, Roughing the Pa [WPA +6.6% · EPA +3.24]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 18:57) — (3:57) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right to 89-D.Graham to BUF 42 for 23 yards (28-L.McKelvin). [WPA +14.5% · EPA +3.20]

Quarterback report card

J.Cutler led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Cutler (Denver Broncos) · 50 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -1.4% CPOE · +0.17 EPA/play · +8.36 total EPA
• T.Edwards (Buffalo Bills) · 28 dropbacks · 60.7% completion · +3.6% CPOE · +0.44 EPA/play · +12.37 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.32 vs +0.14), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +22.94 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Denver Broncos: 10 drives, +13.24 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Edwards (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Edwards (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 55:38 · BUF 2 · Score 0-6
   (10:38) 6-J.Cutler left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-89-D.Graham was injured during the play.
2. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 55:32 · BUF 2 · Score 0-7
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.
3. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 50:01 · BUF 5 · Score 0-10
   (5:01) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.
4. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 43:17 · BUF 12 · Score 0-13
   (13:17) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 37:48 · DEN 19 · Score 3-13
   (7:48) 9-R.Lindell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:19 · DEN 2 · Score 9-13
   (:19) 23-M.Lynch left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:15 · DEN 2 · Score 10-13
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 24:58 · DEN 30 · Score 13-13
   (9:58) 9-R.Lindell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
9. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 20:02 · DEN 10 · Score 16-13
   (5:02) 9-R.Lindell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
10. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 15:44 · BUF 6 · Score 16-19
    (:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 15:38 · BUF 2 · Score 16-20
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 12:50 · DEN 3 · Score 22-20
    (12:50) 5-T.Edwards pass short left to 13-St.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 12:47 · DEN 2 · Score 23-20
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
14. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q4 11:08 · BUF 25 · Score 23-23
    (11:08) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-1-B.Kern.
15. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 9:00 · DEN 8 · Score 29-23
    (9:00) 22-F.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 8:54 · DEN 2 · Score 30-23
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.