Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-12-24, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Chicago Bears, pulling away with a 35–13 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 23 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +0.77 total EPA, and +1.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Singletary (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.43 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-20.1% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +5.43 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.24 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.12 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Montgomery · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +2.78 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.69 EPA/play
5. 5 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.49 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.25 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Pringle · Chicago Bears · Receiving · +1.70 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.52 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.51 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Shakir · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.05 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.53 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Chicago Bears — D. Pettis (J. Fields pass) (Q1 54:46)
• Buffalo Bills — G. Davis (J. Allen pass) (Q1 51:28)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Singletary (Q3 25:59)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (Q3 23:03)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q4 3:51)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q4 1:08)

Field goals

• Chicago Bears — C. Santos (Q2 33:25)
• Chicago Bears — C. Santos (Q4 10:23)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Chicago Bears won the period 7–6. Chicago Bears found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q1 54:46) — (9:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 18-D.Pettis for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Chicago Bears added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 54:41) — 2-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the CHI 19 (Q1 51:28) — (6:28) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: Chicago Bears won the period 3–0. Chicago Bears connected on a field goal from the BUF 19 (Q2 33:25) — (3:25) 2-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 15–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the CHI 33 (Q3 25:59) — (10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the CHI 2 (Q3 25:51) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the CHI 27 (Q3 23:03) — (8:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook right tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the CHI 20 (Q3 22:57) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 20–3. Chicago Bears connected on a field goal from the BUF 17 (Q4 10:23) — (10:23) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the CHI 4 (Q4 3:51) — (3:51) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the CHI 15 (Q4 3:45) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the CHI 13 (Q4 1:08) — (1:08) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the CHI 15 (Q4 1:02) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 43:10) — (13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook). [WPA -20.1% · EPA -4.83]
• Chicago Bears (Q3 23:49) — (8:49) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CHI 34 for no gain (30-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (30-D.Jackson), RECOVERED by BUF-99-T.Settle at CHI 35. 99-T.Settle to CHI 35 for no gain (79-M.Schofield). [WPA -13.7% · EPA -4.97]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 12:24) — (12:24) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 28-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Morrow at BUF 23. 53-N.Morrow to BUF 18 for 5 yards (10-K.Shakir). [WPA -13.2% · EPA -4.73]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 25:59) — (10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.3% · EPA +3.34]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:56) — (:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. [WPA -10.8% · EPA -3.18]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Chicago Bears (Q3 23:49) — (8:49) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CHI 34 for no gain (30-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (30-D.Jackson), RECOVERED by BUF-99-T.Settle at CHI 35. 99-T.Settle to CHI 35 for no gain (79-M.Schofield). [WPA -13.7% · EPA -4.97]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 43:10) — (13:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 6-I.McKenzie INTERCEPTED by 6-K.Gordon at CHI -2. 6-K.Gordon to CHI 34 for 36 yards (28-J.Cook). [WPA -20.1% · EPA -4.83]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 12:24) — (12:24) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 28-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Morrow at BUF 23. 53-N.Morrow to BUF 18 for 5 yards (10-K.Shakir). [WPA -13.2% · EPA -4.73]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 1:08) — (1:08) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -0.0% · EPA +4.58]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 36 dropbacks · 41.7% completion · +1.0% CPOE · +0.02 EPA/play · +0.77 total EPA
• J.Fields (Chicago Bears) · 30 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +0.2% CPOE · -0.24 EPA/play · -7.19 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.06 vs -0.27), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, +4.84 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Chicago Bears: 13 drives, -21.08 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Singletary (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Chicago Bears TD (+6) — Q1 54:46 · BUF 6 · Score 0-6
   (9:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 18-D.Pettis for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Chicago Bears XP (+1) — Q1 54:41 · BUF 15 · Score 0-7
   2-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 51:28 · CHI 19 · Score 6-7
   (6:28) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Chicago Bears FG (+3) — Q2 33:25 · BUF 19 · Score 6-10
   (3:25) 2-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 25:59 · CHI 33 · Score 12-10
   (10:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q3 25:51 · CHI 2 · Score 14-10
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 10-K.Shakir is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 23:03 · CHI 27 · Score 20-10
   (8:03) (Shotgun) 28-J.Cook right tackle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 22:57 · CHI 20 · Score 21-10
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
9. Chicago Bears FG (+3) — Q4 10:23 · BUF 17 · Score 21-13
   (10:23) 2-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 3:51 · CHI 4 · Score 27-13
    (3:51) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 3:45 · CHI 15 · Score 28-13
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 1:08 · CHI 13 · Score 34-13
    (1:08) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Buffalo Bills TD (+7) — Q4 1:02 · CHI 15 · Score 35-13
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.