Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on 2022-10-02, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Baltimore Ravens, pulling away with a 23–20 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +8.22 total EPA, and -11.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.22 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+17.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +8.22 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.79 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
3. 3 I. McKenzie · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.52 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Jackson · Baltimore Ravens · Rushing · +2.78 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.17 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
6. 6 K. Shakir · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.85 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Hill · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +1.07 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
8. 8 P. Ricard · Baltimore Ravens · Rushing · +0.82 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Baltimore Ravens — J. Dobbins (L. Jackson pass) (Q1 58:30)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Dobbins (Q1 46:10)
• Buffalo Bills — I. McKenzie (J. Allen pass) (Q2 30:13)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q3 18:32)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q1 55:18)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q2 42:57)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q2 33:44)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q3 24:45)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 0:03)
• Buffalo Bills — unlisted player (Q4 0:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Baltimore Ravens won the period 14–3. Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q1 58:30) — (13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 27-J.Dobbins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 58:26) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the BAL 20 (Q1 55:18) — (10:18) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q1 46:10) — (1:10) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 46:06) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–6. Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the BUF 24 (Q2 42:57) — (12:57) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.; Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the BUF 33 (Q2 33:44) — (3:44) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BAL 4 (Q2 30:13) — (:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 6-I.McKenzie for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q2 30:09) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the BAL 21 (Q3 24:45) — (9:45) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BAL 11 (Q3 18:32) — (3:32) 17-J.Allen left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q3 18:26) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the BAL 3 (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal (Q4 0:00) — END GAME.

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. [WPA +17.8% · EPA +0.04]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 7:05) — (7:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to BUF 10 for 18 yards (58-M.Milano). [WPA +15.1% · EPA +2.31]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 4:15) — (4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback. [WPA -14.6% · EPA -3.90]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer (94-P.Emili) at 50. 21-J.Poyer to 50 for no gain (8-L.Jackson). [WPA -13.4% · EPA -5.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 59:23) — (14:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey (93-C.Campbell) at BUF 34. 44-M.Humphrey pushed ob at BUF 8 for 26 yards (60-M.Morse; 26-D.Singletary). [WPA -12.2% · EPA -5.54]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 59:23) — (14:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey (93-C.Campbell) at BUF 34. 44-M.Humphrey pushed ob at BUF 8 for 26 yards (60-M.Morse; 26-D.Singletary). [WPA -12.2% · EPA -5.54]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer (94-P.Emili) at 50. 21-J.Poyer to 50 for no gain (8-L.Jackson). [WPA -13.4% · EPA -5.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:28) — (:28) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to BUF 36 for 4 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh), RECOVERED by BAL-32-M.Williams at BUF 36. [WPA -4.7% · EPA -5.08]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 4:15) — (4:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 13-D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touchback. [WPA -14.6% · EPA -3.90]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 43 dropbacks · 44.2% completion · -11.1% CPOE · +0.19 EPA/play · +8.22 total EPA
• L.Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) · 43 dropbacks · 46.5% completion · -0.2% CPOE · -0.16 EPA/play · -6.89 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.02 vs -0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Baltimore Ravens: 11 drives, -3.05 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +1.24 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q1 58:30 · BUF 1 · Score 0-6
   (13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 27-J.Dobbins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q1 58:26 · BUF 15 · Score 0-7
   9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 55:18 · BAL 20 · Score 3-7
   (10:18) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q1 46:10 · BUF 4 · Score 3-13
   (1:10) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q1 46:06 · BUF 15 · Score 3-14
   9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
6. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q2 42:57 · BUF 24 · Score 3-17
   (12:57) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
7. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q2 33:44 · BUF 33 · Score 3-20
   (3:44) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:13 · BAL 4 · Score 9-20
   (:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 6-I.McKenzie for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:09 · BAL 15 · Score 10-20
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
10. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 24:45 · BAL 21 · Score 13-20
    (9:45) 2-T.Bass 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 18:32 · BAL 11 · Score 19-20
    (3:32) 17-J.Allen left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 18:26 · BAL 15 · Score 20-20
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
13. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:03 · BAL 3 · Score 23-20
    (:03) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
14. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:00 · Score 23-20
    END GAME