Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots: 2016 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-12, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Baltimore Ravens, pulling away with a 30–23 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) paced the passing game, with +4.07 total EPA, and +2.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.79 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.1% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Baltimore Ravens changed the game: (7:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk to NE 36 for 40 yards (24-Cy.Jones). PENALTY on NE-21-M.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 36.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +11.79 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
2. 2 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +6.20 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.07 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Bennett · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.01 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.25 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Flacco · Baltimore Ravens · Passing · +4.07 total EPA · 55 snaps · +0.07 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Juszczyk · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +3.68 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Smith · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +3.42 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Hogan · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.38 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Mitchell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.33 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — L. Blount (Q1 46:09)
• New England Patriots — M. Mitchell (T. Brady pass) (Q2 39:31)
• New England Patriots — M. Bennett (T. Brady pass) (Q3 23:50)
• Baltimore Ravens — D. Waller (J. Flacco pass) (Q3 21:54)
• Baltimore Ravens — K. Dixon (J. Flacco pass) (Q3 20:29)
• New England Patriots — C. Hogan (T. Brady pass) (Q4 6:28)

Field goals

• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q2 30:16)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q4 6:39)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q4 2:07)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 9–0. New England Patriots registered a safety from the NE 99 (Q1 55:53) — (10:53) 30-K.Dixon right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (90-M.Brown, 23-P.Chung).; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BAL 1 (Q1 46:09); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q1 46:04) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BAL 6 (Q2 39:31) — (9:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 19-M.Mitchell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q2 39:28) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the NE 32 (Q2 30:16) — (:16) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

The third quarter: Baltimore Ravens won the period 14–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BAL 19 (Q3 23:50) — (8:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 88-M.Bennett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q3 23:45) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q3 21:54) — (6:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 84-D.Waller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 21:50) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the NE 8 (Q3 20:29) — (5:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 30-K.Dixon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 20:24) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–6. Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the NE 20 (Q4 6:39) — (6:39) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BAL 79 (Q4 6:28); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q4 6:18) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the NE 20 (Q4 2:07) — (2:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Baltimore Ravens (Q1 52:11) — (7:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk to NE 36 for 40 yards (24-Cy.Jones). PENALTY on NE-21-M.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 36. [WPA +16.1% · EPA +4.89]
• New England Patriots (Q4 6:28) — (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 450th career TD pass, 4th player all-time to achieve that milestone. NE 15-Hogan 2nd career 100-yard gam [WPA +16.0% · EPA +6.11]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q1 50:58) — (5:58) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (58-S.McClellin), Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch, recovered by BAL-93-L.Guy at NE 26. BAL 9-Tucker breaks streak of 35 consecutive FG, 5th longest str [WPA -15.6% · EPA -3.97]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q1 55:53) — (10:53) 30-K.Dixon right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (90-M.Brown, 23-P.Chung). [WPA -11.0% · EPA -0.87]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 7:24) — (7:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at NE 20 for -8 yards (50-R.Ninkovich). [WPA -10.7% · EPA -1.58]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Baltimore Ravens (Q3 22:08) — (7:08) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to NE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 24-Cy.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-10-C.Moore at NE 3. [WPA +4.3% · EPA +7.39]
• New England Patriots (Q4 6:28) — (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 450th career TD pass, 4th player all-time to achieve that milestone. NE 15-Hogan 2nd career 100-yard gam [WPA +16.0% · EPA +6.11]
• New England Patriots (Q3 21:50) — 9-J.Tucker kicks 64 yards from BAL 35 to NE 1. 18-M.Slater to NE 20 for 19 yards (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-24-S.Wright at NE 22. [WPA -9.4% · EPA -5.79]
• New England Patriots (Q2 34:45) — (4:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 15-C.Hogan INTERCEPTED by 32-E.Weddle [93-L.Guy] at BAL -4. 32-E.Weddle to BAL 10 for 14 yards (15-C.Hogan). [WPA -4.9% · EPA -4.96]

Quarterback report card

J.Flacco led all passers in efficiency for Baltimore Ravens, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) · 55 dropbacks · 67.3% completion · +2.9% CPOE · +0.07 EPA/play · +4.07 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 42 dropbacks · 59.5% completion · +5.7% CPOE · +0.28 EPA/play · +11.79 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Baltimore Ravens +0.03, New England Patriots +0.07) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Baltimore Ravens: 14 drives, +2.83 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 14 drives, +6.24 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots Safety (+2) — Q1 55:53 · NE 99 · Score 0-2
   (10:53) 30-K.Dixon right tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (90-M.Brown, 23-P.Chung).
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 46:09 · BAL 1 · Score 0-8
   (1:09) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 14th Rush TD of season, ties franchise record (Martin '
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 46:04 · BAL 15 · Score 0-9
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
4. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 39:31 · BAL 6 · Score 0-15
   (9:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 19-M.Mitchell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 39:28 · BAL 15 · Score 0-16
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
6. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q2 30:16 · NE 32 · Score 3-16
   (:16) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 23:50 · BAL 19 · Score 3-22
   (8:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 88-M.Bennett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 23:45 · BAL 15 · Score 3-23
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
9. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q3 21:54 · NE 3 · Score 9-23
   (6:54) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 84-D.Waller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q3 21:50 · NE 15 · Score 10-23
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
11. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q3 20:29 · NE 8 · Score 16-23
    (5:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 30-K.Dixon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q3 20:24 · NE 15 · Score 17-23
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
13. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q4 6:39 · NE 20 · Score 20-23
    (6:39) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
14. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 6:28 · BAL 79 · Score 20-29
    (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 450th career TD pass, 4th player all-time to achieve that milest
15. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 6:18 · BAL 15 · Score 20-30
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
16. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q4 2:07 · NE 20 · Score 23-30
    (2:07) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.