Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-09, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Baltimore Ravens, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +13.54 total EPA, and +7.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.54 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+57.0% win probability) landed in overtime when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +13.54 total EPA · 60 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +8.56 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
3. 3 W.Snead IV · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +7.47 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.07 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Hill · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +6.32 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Dixon · Baltimore Ravens · Rushing · +4.32 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
6. 6 L. Jackson · Baltimore Ravens · Passing · +4.01 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Williams · Baltimore Ravens · Receiving · +3.96 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.96 EPA/play
8. 8 Dam. Williams · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.35 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.67 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — unlisted player (Q1 48:07)
• Baltimore Ravens — K. Dixon (Q2 44:22)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Kelce (P. Mahomes pass) (Q2 32:42)
• Baltimore Ravens — M. Williams (L. Jackson pass) (Q3 18:16)
• Baltimore Ravens — J. Brown (L. Jackson pass) (Q4 4:10)
• Kansas City Chiefs — P. Mahomes (Q4 0:57)

Field goals

• Baltimore Ravens — J. Tucker (Q2 37:05)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 30:04)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (OT 4:46)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BAL 1 (Q1 48:07) — (3:07) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q1 48:03) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the KC 3 (Q2 44:22) — (14:22) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q2 44:17) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Baltimore Ravens connected on a field goal from the KC 10 (Q2 37:05) — (7:05) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BAL 15 (Q2 32:42) — (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q2 32:37) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BAL 6 (Q2 30:04) — (:04) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The third quarter: Baltimore Ravens won the period 7–0. Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the KC 10 (Q3 18:16) — (3:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q3 18:10) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Baltimore Ravens found the end zone from the KC 9 (Q4 4:10) — (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Baltimore Ravens added 1 points from the KC 15 (Q4 4:04) — 9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.; Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the BAL 5 (Q4 0:57) — (:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the BAL 15 (Q4 0:53) — 7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Overtime: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 3–0. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the BAL 17 (OT 4:46) — (4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (OT 4:46) — (4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. [WPA +57.0% · EPA +0.34]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. [WPA -36.7% · EPA -2.40]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 0:44) — (:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 30 for -6 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at BAL 23. 50-J.Houston to BAL 23 for no gain (8-L.Jackson). [WPA -36.6% · EPA -4.07]
• Kansas City Chiefs (OT 6:25) — (6:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 25 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 24, recovered by KC-72-E.Fisher at BAL 25. 72-E.Fisher to BAL 25 for no gain (55-T.Suggs). [WPA -25.9% · EPA -1.66]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 0:57) — (:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +22.7% · EPA +4.11]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 1:29) — (1:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill ran ob at BAL 12 for 48 yards [90-Z.Smith]. [WPA +22.2% · EPA +4.61]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 0:57) — (:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +22.7% · EPA +4.11]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q4 0:44) — (:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 30 for -6 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at BAL 23. 50-J.Houston to BAL 23 for no gain (8-L.Jackson). [WPA -36.6% · EPA -4.07]
• Baltimore Ravens (Q3 18:16) — (3:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.1% · EPA +3.96]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 60 dropbacks · 58.3% completion · +7.6% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +13.54 total EPA
• L.Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) · 31 dropbacks · 41.9% completion · -6.4% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +4.01 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Baltimore Ravens +0.04, Kansas City Chiefs +0.03) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Baltimore Ravens: 10 drives, +3.47 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 12 drives, +3.43 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• L. Jackson (BAL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 48:07 · BAL 1 · Score 0-6
   (3:07) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 48:03 · BAL 15 · Score 0-7
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
3. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q2 44:22 · KC 3 · Score 6-7
   (14:22) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q2 44:17 · KC 15 · Score 7-7
   9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
5. Baltimore Ravens FG (+3) — Q2 37:05 · KC 10 · Score 10-7
   (7:05) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
6. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q2 32:42 · BAL 15 · Score 10-13
   (2:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q2 32:37 · BAL 15 · Score 10-14
   7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
8. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 30:04 · BAL 6 · Score 10-17
   (:04) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
9. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q3 18:16 · KC 10 · Score 16-17
   (3:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 87-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q3 18:10 · KC 15 · Score 17-17
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
11. Baltimore Ravens TD (+6) — Q4 4:10 · KC 9 · Score 23-17
    (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Baltimore Ravens XP (+1) — Q4 4:04 · KC 15 · Score 24-17
    9-J.Tucker extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
13. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q4 0:57 · BAL 5 · Score 24-23
    (:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 26-Dam. Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q4 0:53 · BAL 15 · Score 24-24
    7-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
15. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — OT 4:46 · BAL 17 · Score 24-27
    (4:46) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.