Game story
In Week 17 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-30, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 34–32 final that came down to the wire.
The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.
M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +15.48 total EPA, and +7.8% completion percentage over expected.
On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.48 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.
The momentum swing (+34.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Line score
Final score and points by quarter.
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | — | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 0 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 32 |
Stars of the game
Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.
- 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +15.48 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
- 2 J. Winston · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +12.82 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
- 3 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +10.89 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
- 4 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +5.28 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
- 5 C. Godwin · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +5.19 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
- 6 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.30 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
- 7 A. Humphries · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
- 8 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +2.72 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.72 EPA/play
Player of the game
FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.
M. Ryan — ATL · Passing
M. Ryan posted the highest total EPA (+15.48) in the game, making the biggest overall impact on Atlanta Falcons's efficiency. Across 46 counted snaps, they averaged +0.34 EPA per play.
The signature play (-5.35 EPA) came from Atlanta Falcons: (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).
Who scored touchdowns and field goals
Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.
Touchdowns
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass)
- Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass)
- Atlanta Falcons — M. Ryan (M. Sanu pass)
- Atlanta Falcons — T. Coleman
- Atlanta Falcons — C. Ridley (M. Ryan pass)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass)
Field goals
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Santos
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Santos
- Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant
- Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant
How it unfolded, quarter by quarter
A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.
The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 19 (Q1 48:53) — (3:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 48:48) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger..
The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the ATL 18 (Q2 38:29) — (8:29) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 30 (Q2 30:51) — (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 30:46) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 19 (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 30:20) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher..
The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 17–3. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 5 (Q3 23:55) — (8:55) (Shotgun) 12-M.Sanu pass short right to 2-M.Ryan for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 23:49) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the ATL 27 (Q3 21:43) — (6:43) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 31 (Q3 17:04) — (2:04) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 23 (Q3 15:50) — (:50) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 15:44) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher..
The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 12–10. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 7 (Q4 10:57) — (10:57) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 10:51) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 10 (Q4 8:15) — (8:15) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 19 (Q4 5:17) — (5:17) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 19 (Q4 0:04) — (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher..
Turning points
Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.
- Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:04) — (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
- Atlanta Falcons (Q4 6:05) — (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).
- Atlanta Falcons (Q4 1:53) — (1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to TB 16 for 16 yards (36-M.Stewart).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 16:27) — (1:27) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (21-D.Trufant) at TB 45. 27-D.Kazee to TB 43 for 2 yards (32-J.Rodgers).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 5:54) — (5:54) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to ATL 19 for 15 yards (34-B.Poole).
Impact plays
Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.
- Atlanta Falcons (Q4 6:05) — (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 16:27) — (1:27) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (21-D.Trufant) at TB 45. 27-D.Kazee to TB 43 for 2 yards (32-J.Rodgers).
- Atlanta Falcons (Q3 18:57) — (3:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 12-M.Sanu to TB 34 for 32 yards (31-J.Whitehead).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 30:51) — (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Quarterback report card
M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.
- M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 46 dropbacks · 67.4% completion · +7.8% CPOE · +0.34 EPA/play · +15.48 total EPA
- J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 41 dropbacks · 53.7% completion · +5.0% CPOE · +0.31 EPA/play · +12.82 total EPA
Team stats comparison
Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.
| Stat | Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive EPA/play | +0.142 | +0.141 |
| Offensive success rate | 50.5% | 50.6% |
| Pass EPA/play | +0.387 | +0.313 |
| Rush EPA/play | -0.157 | -0.160 |
| Defensive EPA/play | -0.141 | -0.142 |
| Defensive success rate | 49.4% | 49.5% |
By the numbers
Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Atlanta Falcons +0.14, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +0.14) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.
- Atlanta Falcons: 12 drives, +13.81 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13 drives, +10.85 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
Key takeaways
What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.
- Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
- One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
- M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
- M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
- J. Winston (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
Every scoring play
Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q1 48:53 · ATL 19 · Score 0-6
(3:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q1 48:48 · ATL 15 · Score 0-7
5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q2 38:29 · ATL 18 · Score 0-10
(8:29) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:51 · ATL 30 · Score 0-16
(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 30:46 · ATL 15 · Score 0-17
5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:24 · TB 19 · Score 6-17
(:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:20 · TB 15 · Score 7-17
3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. - Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 23:55 · TB 5 · Score 13-17
(8:55) (Shotgun) 12-M.Sanu pass short right to 2-M.Ryan for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 23:49 · TB 15 · Score 14-17
3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q3 21:43 · ATL 27 · Score 14-20
(6:43) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q3 17:04 · TB 31 · Score 17-20
(2:04) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. - Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 15:50 · TB 23 · Score 23-20
(:50) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 15:44 · TB 15 · Score 24-20
3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. - Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 10:57 · TB 7 · Score 30-20
(10:57) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 10:51 · TB 15 · Score 31-20
3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 8:15 · ATL 10 · Score 31-26
(8:15) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 5:17 · ATL 19 · Score 31-32
(5:17) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 0:04 · TB 19 · Score 34-32
(:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
Frequently asked questions
Who won Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The Atlanta Falcons beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-32 in Week 17, 2018 on 2018-12-30.
What was the final score of Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The final score was Atlanta Falcons 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 (ATL 34-32 TB) in Week 17, 2018 on 2018-12-30.
What was the score by quarter in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Q1: Atlanta Falcons 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7; Q2: Atlanta Falcons 7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10; Q3: Atlanta Falcons 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3; Q4: Atlanta Falcons 10, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12; Final: Atlanta Falcons 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32.
Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q1 48:53) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass) (Q2 30:51) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:24) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — M. Ryan (M. Sanu pass) (Q3 23:55) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — T. Coleman (Q3 15:50) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — C. Ridley (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 10:57) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q4 8:15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass) (Q4 5:17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — C. Santos (Q2 38:29, 3 pts) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — C. Santos (Q3 21:43, 3 pts) Atlanta Falcons field goal — M. Bryant (Q3 17:04, 3 pts) Atlanta Falcons field goal — M. Bryant (Q4 0:04, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.
How did the quarterbacks play in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons), 67.4% completion, +7.8% CPOE, +0.34 EPA per dropback, +15.48 total passing EPA. J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), 53.7% completion, +5.0% CPOE, +0.31 EPA per dropback, +12.82 total passing EPA.
Who was the most impactful player in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) led the game in total EPA with +15.48 on passing plays. across 46 snaps. The top single-play swing was (-5.35 EPA): (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).. The biggest win-probability swing was +34.3%.
Was Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers a close game?
Yes — the margin was 2 points. Atlanta Falcons won 34-32 in a game that came down to the wire.
Season records after this game
Atlanta Falcons
Entered 6-9 Now 7-9 W
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Entered 5-10 Now 5-11 L