FantasyHQ · Game Recap

NFL · Week 17 · December 30, 2018 · 12 min read

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 17 Recap

Falcons defeat Buccaneers 34–32 in Week 17

Matt Ryan led Fantasy Impact as Falcons prevailed in a 34–32 Week 17 finish.

Atlanta Falcons 34 7–9 Winner
Final 34–32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 5–11
Winner
Atlanta Falcons
Final score
34–32
Halftime
Atlanta Falcons 7–17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Top passer
Matt Ryan
FantasyHQ MVP
Matt Ryan
Game date
December 30, 2018

Top fantasy performers · Falcons

  • Matt Ryan
    Matt Ryan 31/46 · 385 YDS · 2 TD +15.5 Fantasy Impact
  • Justin Jones
    Justin Jones 9 REC · 138 YDS · 1 TD +10.9 Fantasy Impact
  • M.Sanu 7 REC · 90 YDS +4.3 Fantasy Impact

Top fantasy performers · Buccaneers

  • Jameis Winston
    Jameis Winston 22/41 · 356 YDS · 4 TD +12.8 Fantasy Impact
  • Mitchell Evans
    Mitchell Evans 6 REC · 106 YDS · 2 TD +5.3 Fantasy Impact
  • Chris Godwin
    Chris Godwin 6 REC · 114 YDS · 2 TD +5.2 Fantasy Impact

Game story

The Atlanta Falcons defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34–32 in Week 17 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-30, a matchup that came down to the wire. The decisive swing (+34.3% win probability) came in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons swung the momentum.

In Week 17 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-30, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 34–32 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 22 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +15.48 total EPA, and +7.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.48 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+34.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
Atlanta Falcons071710034
Tampa Bay Buccaneers710312032

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

  1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +15.48 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
  2. 2 J. Winston · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +12.82 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
  3. 3 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +10.89 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
  4. 4 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +5.28 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
  5. 5 C. Godwin · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +5.19 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
  6. 6 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.30 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
  7. 7 A. Humphries · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
  8. 8 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +2.72 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.72 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

M. Ryan — ATL · Passing

M. Ryan posted the highest total EPA (+15.48) in the game, making the biggest overall impact on Atlanta Falcons's efficiency. Across 46 counted snaps, they averaged +0.34 EPA per play.

The signature play (-5.35 EPA) came from Atlanta Falcons: (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q1 48:53)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass) (Q2 30:51)
  • Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:24)
  • Atlanta Falcons — M. Ryan (M. Sanu pass) (Q3 23:55)
  • Atlanta Falcons — T. Coleman (Q3 15:50)
  • Atlanta Falcons — C. Ridley (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 10:57)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q4 8:15)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass) (Q4 5:17)

Field goals

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Santos (Q2 38:29)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. Santos (Q3 21:43)
  • Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q3 17:04)
  • Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 0:04)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 19 (Q1 48:53) — (3:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 48:48) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the ATL 18 (Q2 38:29) — (8:29) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 30 (Q2 30:51) — (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 30:46) — 5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 19 (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 30:20) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 17–3. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 5 (Q3 23:55) — (8:55) (Shotgun) 12-M.Sanu pass short right to 2-M.Ryan for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 23:49) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the ATL 27 (Q3 21:43) — (6:43) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 31 (Q3 17:04) — (2:04) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 23 (Q3 15:50) — (:50) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q3 15:44) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 12–10. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the TB 7 (Q4 10:57) — (10:57) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q4 10:51) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 10 (Q4 8:15) — (8:15) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the ATL 19 (Q4 5:17) — (5:17) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the TB 19 (Q4 0:04) — (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

  • Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:04) — (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher. [WPA +34.3% · EPA +0.33]
  • Atlanta Falcons (Q4 6:05) — (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy). [WPA -19.2% · EPA -5.35]
  • Atlanta Falcons (Q4 1:53) — (1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to TB 16 for 16 yards (36-M.Stewart). [WPA +17.9% · EPA +1.17]
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 16:27) — (1:27) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (21-D.Trufant) at TB 45. 27-D.Kazee to TB 43 for 2 yards (32-J.Rodgers). [WPA -17.4% · EPA -4.43]
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 5:54) — (5:54) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to ATL 19 for 15 yards (34-B.Poole). [WPA +13.3% · EPA +0.98]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

  • Atlanta Falcons (Q4 6:05) — (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy). [WPA -19.2% · EPA -5.35]
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q3 16:27) — (1:27) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee (21-D.Trufant) at TB 45. 27-D.Kazee to TB 43 for 2 yards (32-J.Rodgers). [WPA -17.4% · EPA -4.43]
  • Atlanta Falcons (Q3 18:57) — (3:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 12-M.Sanu to TB 34 for 32 yards (31-J.Whitehead). [WPA +13.0% · EPA +3.80]
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 30:51) — (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +3.2% · EPA +3.63]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

  • M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 46 dropbacks · 67.4% completion · +7.8% CPOE · +0.34 EPA/play · +15.48 total EPA
  • J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 41 dropbacks · 53.7% completion · +5.0% CPOE · +0.31 EPA/play · +12.82 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

StatAtlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Offensive EPA/play+0.142+0.141
Offensive success rate50.5%50.6%
Pass EPA/play+0.387+0.313
Rush EPA/play-0.157-0.160
Defensive EPA/play-0.141-0.142
Defensive success rate49.4%49.5%

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Atlanta Falcons +0.14, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +0.14) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

  • Atlanta Falcons: 12 drives, +13.81 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13 drives, +10.85 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

  • Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
  • One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
  • M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
  • M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
  • J. Winston (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q1 48:53 · ATL 19 · Score 0-6
    (3:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q1 48:48 · ATL 15 · Score 0-7
    5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q2 38:29 · ATL 18 · Score 0-10
    (8:29) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:51 · ATL 30 · Score 0-16
    (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 30:46 · ATL 15 · Score 0-17
    5-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
  6. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:24 · TB 19 · Score 6-17
    (:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  7. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:20 · TB 15 · Score 7-17
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
  8. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 23:55 · TB 5 · Score 13-17
    (8:55) (Shotgun) 12-M.Sanu pass short right to 2-M.Ryan for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  9. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 23:49 · TB 15 · Score 14-17
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
  10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q3 21:43 · ATL 27 · Score 14-20
    (6:43) 5-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
  11. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q3 17:04 · TB 31 · Score 17-20
    (2:04) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
  12. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 15:50 · TB 23 · Score 23-20
    (:50) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  13. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 15:44 · TB 15 · Score 24-20
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
  14. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 10:57 · TB 7 · Score 30-20
    (10:57) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  15. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 10:51 · TB 15 · Score 31-20
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
  16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 8:15 · ATL 10 · Score 31-26
    (8:15) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 5:17 · ATL 19 · Score 31-32
    (5:17) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  18. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 0:04 · TB 19 · Score 34-32
    (:04) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Condo, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

The Atlanta Falcons beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-32 in Week 17, 2018 on 2018-12-30.

What was the final score of Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

The final score was Atlanta Falcons 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 (ATL 34-32 TB) in Week 17, 2018 on 2018-12-30.

What was the score by quarter in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Q1: Atlanta Falcons 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7; Q2: Atlanta Falcons 7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10; Q3: Atlanta Falcons 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3; Q4: Atlanta Falcons 10, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12; Final: Atlanta Falcons 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q1 48:53) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass) (Q2 30:51) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:24) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — M. Ryan (M. Sanu pass) (Q3 23:55) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — T. Coleman (Q3 15:50) Atlanta Falcons touchdown — C. Ridley (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 10:57) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — M. Evans (J. Winston pass) (Q4 8:15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — C. Godwin (J. Winston pass) (Q4 5:17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — C. Santos (Q2 38:29, 3 pts) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — C. Santos (Q3 21:43, 3 pts) Atlanta Falcons field goal — M. Bryant (Q3 17:04, 3 pts) Atlanta Falcons field goal — M. Bryant (Q4 0:04, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.

How did the quarterbacks play in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons), 67.4% completion, +7.8% CPOE, +0.34 EPA per dropback, +15.48 total passing EPA. J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), 53.7% completion, +5.0% CPOE, +0.31 EPA per dropback, +12.82 total passing EPA.

Who was the most impactful player in Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) led the game in total EPA with +15.48 on passing plays. across 46 snaps. The top single-play swing was (-5.35 EPA): (6:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-J.Hardy INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Adams at ATL 47. 26-A.Adams to ATL 34 for 13 yards (14-J.Hardy).. The biggest win-probability swing was +34.3%.

Was Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers a close game?

Yes — the margin was 2 points. Atlanta Falcons won 34-32 in a game that came down to the wire.

Season records after this game

Atlanta Falcons

Entered 6-9 Now 7-9 W

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Entered 5-10 Now 5-11 L