Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-11-08, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 17–16 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with -1.16 total EPA, and +1.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Gabbert (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.52 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-19.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Gabbert · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +7.52 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.83 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
3. 3 Q. Patton · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.76 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
4. 4 G. Celek · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +4.66 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.33 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.66 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +3.48 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
7. 7 B. Miller · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +1.76 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Draughn · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +1.47 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — G. Celek (B. Gabbert pass) (Q2 43:45)
• San Francisco 49ers — G. Celek (B. Gabbert pass) (Q2 31:20)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:21)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 54:30)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q2 36:10)
• San Francisco 49ers — P. Dawson (Q2 33:25)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 3:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 3–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SF 26 (Q1 54:30) — (9:30) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 17–10. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q2 43:45) — (13:45) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 43:41) — 9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SF 18 (Q2 36:10) — (6:10) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the ATL 26 (Q2 33:25) — (3:25) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the ATL 11 (Q2 31:20) — (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 31:16) — 9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the SF 17 (Q2 30:21) — (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 16. 16-yds YAC; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q2 30:13) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 3–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the SF 1 (Q4 3:00) — (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 3:00) — (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. [WPA -19.4% · EPA +0.03]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 7:20) — (7:20) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep left intended for 89-V.McDonald INTERCEPTED by 44-V.Beasley at ATL 33. 44-V.Beasley to ATL 33 for no gain (89-V.McDonald). [WPA -13.7% · EPA -3.76]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 49:01) — (4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 11-Q.Patton to ATL 39 for 41 yards (32-J.Collins). Caught at SF27. 34-yd YAC [WPA +11.1% · EPA +3.76]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 5:40) — (5:40) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman to SF 20 for 12 yards (57-M.Wilhoite) [91-A.Armstead]. Caught at SF 26. 6-yds YAC [WPA +11.1% · EPA +0.67]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 7:09) — (7:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 84-R.White to SF 47 for 20 yards (36-D.Johnson). Caught at SF 48. 1-yd YAC [WPA +9.3% · EPA +1.67]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 7:20) — (7:20) 2-B.Gabbert pass deep left intended for 89-V.McDonald INTERCEPTED by 44-V.Beasley at ATL 33. 44-V.Beasley to ATL 33 for no gain (89-V.McDonald). [WPA -13.7% · EPA -3.76]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 49:01) — (4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short right to 11-Q.Patton to ATL 39 for 41 yards (32-J.Collins). Caught at SF27. 34-yd YAC [WPA +11.1% · EPA +3.76]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 30:21) — (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 16. 16-yds YAC [WPA +9.1% · EPA +3.41]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 31:20) — (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.2% · EPA +3.32]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 50 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +1.3% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -1.16 total EPA
• B.Gabbert (San Francisco 49ers) · 31 dropbacks · 48.4% completion · +0.8% CPOE · +0.24 EPA/play · +7.52 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Atlanta Falcons +0.01, San Francisco 49ers +0.00) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Atlanta Falcons: 11 drives, +0.55 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 12 drives, +0.26 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• B. Gabbert (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 54:30 · SF 26 · Score 3-0
   (9:30) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
2. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 43:45 · ATL 1 · Score 3-6
   (13:45) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 43:41 · ATL 15 · Score 3-7
   9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
4. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 36:10 · SF 18 · Score 6-7
   (6:10) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 33:25 · ATL 26 · Score 6-10
   (3:25) 9-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
6. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 31:20 · ATL 11 · Score 6-16
   (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 31:16 · ATL 15 · Score 6-17
   9-P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
8. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:21 · SF 17 · Score 12-17
   (:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 16. 16-yds YAC
9. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · SF 15 · Score 13-17
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
10. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 3:00 · SF 1 · Score 16-17
    (3:00) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.