Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: 2023 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on 2024-01-07, the New Orleans Saints took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 48–17 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Carr (New Orleans Saints) paced the passing game, with +16.27 total EPA, and +19.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Carr (New Orleans Saints) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.27 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+18.2% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Carr · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +16.27 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Ridder · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +6.87 total EPA · 30 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
3. 3 C. Olave · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +6.73 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.24 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Shaheed · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +6.53 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.63 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Perry · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +6.19 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.06 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Miller · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.30 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.65 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Johnson · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +5.19 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.73 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Robinson · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +2.88 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — J. Smith (D. Ridder pass) (Q1 53:49)
• New Orleans Saints — A. Perry (D. Carr pass) (Q1 50:07)
• Atlanta Falcons — B. Robinson (D. Ridder pass) (Q1 49:24)
• New Orleans Saints — K. Miller (Q2 41:09)
• New Orleans Saints — C. Olave (D. Carr pass) (Q3 28:08)
• New Orleans Saints — R. Shaheed (D. Carr pass) (Q3 24:02)
• New Orleans Saints — A. Perry (D. Carr pass) (Q4 9:05)
• New Orleans Saints — J. Williams (Q4 1:13)

Field goals

• New Orleans Saints — B. Grupe (Q2 30:58)
• New Orleans Saints — B. Grupe (Q2 30:56)
• Atlanta Falcons — Y. Koo (Q2 30:03)
• Atlanta Falcons — unlisted player (Q2 30:00)
• New Orleans Saints — B. Grupe (Q4 10:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 14–7. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 15 (Q1 53:49) — (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 53:42) — 6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 18 (Q1 50:07) — (5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-A.Perry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 50:01) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 71 (Q1 49:24) — (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 49:13) — 6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion..

The second quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 13–6. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 3 (Q2 41:09); New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 41:04) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the ATL 6 (Q2 30:58) — (:58) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the NO 35 (Q2 30:56) — 19-B.Grupe kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the NO 12 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 6-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal (Q2 30:00) — END QUARTER 2.

The third quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 14–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 26 (Q3 28:08) — (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 28:01) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 39 (Q3 24:02) — (9:02) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 23:54) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley..

The fourth quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 17–0. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the ATL 6 (Q4 10:00) — (10:00) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 6 (Q4 9:05) — (9:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 9:02) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) New quarterback for NO is 2-J.Winston. 21-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 1:10) — 19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 49:24) — (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.2% · EPA +5.98]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 56:02) — (11:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 16-S.Miller to NO 18 for 56 yards (31-J.Howden). [WPA +16.0% · EPA +4.95]
• New Orleans Saints (Q3 28:08) — (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.5% · EPA +2.99]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 43:37) — (13:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 14 for 12 yards (59-A.Smith; 27-R.Grant). INJURY UPDATE: ATL 55-K.Elliss, knee, QUESTIONABLE to return. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +2.89]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 28:45) — (13:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at ATL 41. 1-A.Taylor to ATL 25 for 16 yards (9-D.Ridder). [WPA -8.0% · EPA -4.54]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 1:28) — (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-L.Woodside pass short right intended for 12-K.Hodge INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at NO 25. 32-T.Mathieu to ATL 1 for 74 yards (87-J.FitzPatrick, 18-M.Hollins). [WPA -0.0% · EPA -9.92]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 49:24) — (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.2% · EPA +5.98]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 9:12) — (9:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 16, touched at ATL 13, RECOVERED by NO-98-P.Turner at ATL 10. 98-P.Turner to ATL 10 for no gain (65-M.Bergeron). [WPA -1.4% · EPA -5.86]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 56:02) — (11:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 16-S.Miller to NO 18 for 56 yards (31-J.Howden). [WPA +16.0% · EPA +4.95]

Quarterback report card

D.Carr led all passers in efficiency for New Orleans Saints, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Carr (New Orleans Saints) · 31 dropbacks · 71.0% completion · +19.4% CPOE · +0.52 EPA/play · +16.27 total EPA
• D.Ridder (Atlanta Falcons) · 30 dropbacks · 73.3% completion · +3.5% CPOE · +0.23 EPA/play · +6.87 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New Orleans Saints held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.15 vs -0.28), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 13 drives, -22.47 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 12 drives, +13.76 total EPA, 8 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New Orleans Saints leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Carr (New Orleans Saints) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Carr (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Ridder (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 53:49 · NO 15 · Score 6-0
   (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 53:42 · NO 15 · Score 7-0
   6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
3. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 50:07 · ATL 18 · Score 7-6
   (5:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-A.Perry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 50:01 · ATL 15 · Score 7-7
   19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
5. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 49:24 · NO 71 · Score 13-7
   (4:24) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 49:13 · NO 15 · Score 14-7
   6-Y.Koo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
7. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q2 41:09 · ATL 3 · Score 14-13
   (11:09) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 25-K.Miller left end to ATL 1 for 2 yards (53-N.Landman; 95-T.Graham). New Orleans challenged the short of the goal
8. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q2 41:04 · ATL 15 · Score 14-14
   19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
9. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 30:58 · ATL 6 · Score 14-17
   (:58) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
10. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 30:56 · NO 35 · Score 14-17
    19-B.Grupe kicks 65 yards from NO 35 to end zone, Touchback.
11. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · NO 12 · Score 17-17
    (:03) 6-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
12. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 30:00 · Score 17-17
    END QUARTER 2
13. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q3 28:08 · ATL 26 · Score 17-23
    (13:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q3 28:01 · ATL 15 · Score 17-24
    19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
15. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q3 24:02 · ATL 39 · Score 17-30
    (9:02) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q3 23:54 · ATL 15 · Score 17-31
    19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
17. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q4 10:00 · ATL 6 · Score 17-34
    (10:00) 19-B.Grupe 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
18. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 9:05 · ATL 6 · Score 17-40
    (9:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 9:02 · ATL 15 · Score 17-41
    19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
20. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 1:13 · ATL 1 · Score 17-47
    (1:13) New quarterback for NO is 2-J.Winston. 21-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
21. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 1:10 · ATL 15 · Score 17-48
    19-B.Grupe extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.