Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-11-22, the New Orleans Saints took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 31–17 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with -0.91 total EPA, and +10.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +6.16 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-12.0% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (6:36) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NO 7 for -4 yards (43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), touched at NO 9, RECOVERED by NO-43-M.Williams at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 13 for no gain (12-M.Sanu).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Brees · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +6.16 total EPA · 24 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.93 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Hooper · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.94 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Lewis · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.43 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.43 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Thomas · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.13 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Carr · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.96 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.96 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Kamara · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.85 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.85 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Kamara · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +1.39 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New Orleans Saints — T. Lewis (D. Brees pass) (Q1 56:17)
• New Orleans Saints — A. Carr (D. Brees pass) (Q2 33:25)
• New Orleans Saints — D. Arnold (D. Brees pass) (Q3 21:05)
• Atlanta Falcons — C. Ridley (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 15:28)
• New Orleans Saints — K. Kirkwood (D. Brees pass) (Q4 9:31)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Coleman (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 1:54)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 47:40)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q2 39:12)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 7–3. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 28 (Q1 56:17) — (11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 56:11) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the NO 14 (Q1 47:40) — (2:40) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 10–0. New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the ATL 4 (Q2 39:12) — (9:12) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 12 (Q2 33:25) — (3:25) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 80-A.Carr for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 12, YAC 0; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 33:20) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 25 (Q3 21:05) — (6:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 85-D.Arnold for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 25, YAC 0; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q3 20:59) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 2 (Q3 15:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q3 15:22) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the ATL 5 (Q4 9:31) — (9:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 18-K.Kirkwood for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 9:27) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the NO 4 (Q4 1:54) — (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 1; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q4 1:51) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 51:36) — (6:36) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NO 7 for -4 yards (43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), touched at NO 9, RECOVERED by NO-43-M.Williams at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 13 for no gain (12-M.Sanu). [WPA -12.0% · EPA -5.92]
• New Orleans Saints (Q2 44:16) — (14:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to ATL 37 for 12 yards (21-D.Trufant). Pass 12, YAC 0 [WPA +7.7% · EPA +2.51]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 50:44) — (5:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left intended for 18-K.Kirkwood INTERCEPTED by 27-D.Kazee at NO 39. 27-D.Kazee to NO 39 for no gain (18-K.Kirkwood). [WPA -6.4% · EPA -3.52]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 56:56) — (11:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to ATL 28 for 8 yards (42-D.Riley). Pass 5, YAC 3 [WPA +6.1% · EPA +1.76]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 53:48) — (8:48) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 12-M.Sanu to NO 11 for 37 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 31, YAC 6 [WPA +5.9% · EPA +2.43]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 12:34) — (12:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 53-A.Klein (95-T.Davison) at ATL 28. 53-A.Klein to ATL 22 for 6 yards (11-J.Jones). [WPA -3.2% · EPA -6.03]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 51:36) — (6:36) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NO 7 for -4 yards (43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (43-M.Williams), touched at NO 9, RECOVERED by NO-43-M.Williams at NO 13. 43-M.Williams to NO 13 for no gain (12-M.Sanu). [WPA -12.0% · EPA -5.92]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 17:07) — (2:07) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley pushed ob at NO 2 for 50 yards (43-M.Williams). Pass 23, YAC 27 [WPA +2.1% · EPA +4.99]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 6:22) — (6:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones to NO 30 for 21 yards (43-M.Williams) [98-S.Rankins]. Pass 21, YAC 0 [WPA +0.1% · EPA +4.03]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 56 dropbacks · 62.5% completion · +10.5% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -0.91 total EPA
• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 24 dropbacks · 62.5% completion · +7.5% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +6.16 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New Orleans Saints held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.08 vs -0.12), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 10 drives, -10.14 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 11 drives, +5.95 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New Orleans Saints leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Brees (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 56:17 · ATL 28 · Score 0-6
   (11:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 11-T.Lewis for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 27, YAC 1
2. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 56:11 · ATL 15 · Score 0-7
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
3. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 47:40 · NO 14 · Score 3-7
   (2:40) 3-M.Bryant 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
4. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q2 39:12 · ATL 4 · Score 3-10
   (9:12) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
5. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q2 33:25 · ATL 12 · Score 3-16
   (3:25) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 80-A.Carr for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 12, YAC 0
6. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q2 33:20 · ATL 15 · Score 3-17
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
7. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q3 21:05 · ATL 25 · Score 3-23
   (6:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 85-D.Arnold for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 25, YAC 0
8. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q3 20:59 · ATL 15 · Score 3-24
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
9. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 15:28 · NO 2 · Score 9-24
   (:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 15:22 · NO 15 · Score 10-24
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
11. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 9:31 · ATL 5 · Score 10-30
    (9:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 18-K.Kirkwood for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0
12. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 9:27 · ATL 15 · Score 10-31
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 1:54 · NO 4 · Score 16-31
    (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 1
14. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 1:51 · NO 15 · Score 17-31
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.