Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: 2011 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-11, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 31–23 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 16 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +15.03 total EPA, and +0.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.03 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+29.0% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (4:28) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +15.03 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +8.48 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.06 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Smith · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +7.57 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
4. 4 R. White · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +6.95 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Gonzalez · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.44 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
6. 6 G. Olsen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +4.39 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Rodgers · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.38 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.69 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Williams · Carolina Panthers · Rushing · +3.11 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — R. White (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 50:35)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Shockey (C. Newton pass) (Q1 45:07)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Williams (Q2 37:02)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Olsen (C. Newton pass) (Q2 33:15)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Rodgers (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 24:03)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 12:49)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 4:28)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q3 25:59)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 5 (Q1 50:35) — (5:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-R.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q1 50:29) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 6 (Q1 45:07) — (:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 80-J.Shockey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q1 45:03) — 10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 16–0. Carolina Panthers registered a safety from the CAR 92 (Q2 37:18) — (7:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (93-A.Applewhite).; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 74 (Q2 37:02) — (7:02) 34-D.Williams right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q2 36:51) — 10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 44 (Q2 33:15) — (3:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q2 33:03) — 10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the CAR 12 (Q3 25:59) — (10:59) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 31 (Q3 24:03) — (9:03) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 22-J.Rodgers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q3 23:55) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 14–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 17 (Q4 12:49) — (12:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 12:42) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 75 (Q4 4:28) — (4:28) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 4:17) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 4:28) — (4:28) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +29.0% · EPA +6.94]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 5:16) — (5:16) 10-O.Mare 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker. [WPA -23.8% · EPA -3.25]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 19:57) — (4:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 25-W.Moore at ATL 47. 25-W.Moore to CAR 24 for 29 yards (67-R.Kalil). [WPA -14.5% · EPA -4.86]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 24:03) — (9:03) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 22-J.Rodgers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.7% · EPA +3.66]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 12:49) — (12:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.7% · EPA +2.89]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 4:28) — (4:28) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +29.0% · EPA +6.94]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 37:02) — (7:02) 34-D.Williams right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.9% · EPA +6.34]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 33:15) — (3:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.8% · EPA +5.74]
• Carolina Panthers (Q3 24:34) — (9:34) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 28-J.Stewart INTERCEPTED by 53-M.Peterson at CAR 39. 53-M.Peterson to CAR 35 for 4 yards (67-R.Kalil). [WPA -7.0% · EPA -5.52]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 44 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +0.5% CPOE · +0.34 EPA/play · +15.03 total EPA
• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 43 dropbacks · 44.2% completion · -11.3% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -3.82 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Atlanta Falcons generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.10 vs -0.04), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Atlanta Falcons: 14 drives, +8.87 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Carolina Panthers: 14 drives, -3.35 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Newton (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 50:35 · CAR 5 · Score 6-0
   (5:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-R.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 50:29 · CAR 2 · Score 7-0
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 45:07 · ATL 6 · Score 7-6
   (:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 80-J.Shockey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 45:03 · ATL 2 · Score 7-7
   10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
5. Carolina Panthers Safety (+2) — Q2 37:18 · CAR 92 · Score 7-9
   (7:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (93-A.Applewhite).
6. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 37:02 · ATL 74 · Score 7-15
   (7:02) 34-D.Williams right end for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 36:51 · ATL 2 · Score 7-16
   10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
8. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 33:15 · ATL 44 · Score 7-22
   (3:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 33:03 · ATL 2 · Score 7-23
   10-O.Mare extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
10. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q3 25:59 · CAR 12 · Score 10-23
    (10:59) 3-M.Bryant 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
11. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 24:03 · CAR 31 · Score 16-23
    (9:03) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 22-J.Rodgers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 23:55 · CAR 2 · Score 17-23
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 12:49 · CAR 17 · Score 23-23
    (12:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 12:42 · CAR 2 · Score 24-23
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
15. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 4:28 · CAR 75 · Score 30-23
    (4:28) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 4:17 · CAR 2 · Score 31-23
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-5-M.Bosher.