Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: 2009 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2009 NFL season on 2009-11-15, the Carolina Panthers took care of business against the Atlanta Falcons, pulling away with a 28–19 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +5.38 total EPA, and -3.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.86 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-27.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (6:39) 1-J.Elam 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Delhomme · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +12.86 total EPA · 27 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Smith · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +8.36 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.09 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Turner · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +7.21 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Muhammad · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +6.77 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +5.38 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Gonzalez · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.49 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
7. 7 R. White · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.29 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Peelle · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.85 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.28 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — J. Stewart (Q1 51:19)
• Carolina Panthers — S. Smith (J. Delhomme pass) (Q2 42:32)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Snelling (Q2 36:00)
• Carolina Panthers — S. Smith (J. Delhomme pass) (Q2 31:12)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Peelle (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 13:50)
• Carolina Panthers — J. Stewart (Q4 2:15)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — J. Elam (Q1 56:20)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Elam (Q3 24:25)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–3. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the CAR 17 (Q1 56:20) — (11:20) 1-J.Elam 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q1 51:19) — (6:19) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q1 51:15) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 14–7. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 4 (Q2 42:32); Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q2 42:26) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q2 36:00) — (6:00) 44-J.Snelling left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q2 35:56) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 4 (Q2 31:12); Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q2 31:08) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 3–0. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the CAR 6 (Q3 24:25) — (9:25) 1-J.Elam 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen..

The fourth quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 7–6. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 3 (Q4 13:50); Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 45 (Q4 2:15) — (2:15) 28-J.Stewart left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 2:07) — 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 6:39) — (6:39) 1-J.Elam 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen. [WPA -27.6% · EPA -3.57]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 3:59) — (3:59) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for 12-M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Marshall at CAR 21. 31-R.Marshall to CAR 49 for 28 yards (12-M.Jenkins). [WPA -26.7% · EPA -4.21]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 8:01) — (8:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 84-R.White to CAR 25 for 34 yards (43-C.Harris). [WPA +17.6% · EPA +2.77]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 13:50) — (13:50) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 87-J.Peelle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-20-C.Gamble, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on CAR-23-S.Martin, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +12.7% · EPA +3.42]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 33:40) — (3:40) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for 12-M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Martin at ATL 45. 23-S.Martin to ATL 33 for 12 yards (88-T.Gonzalez). [WPA -11.6% · EPA -4.07]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 2:15) — (2:15) 28-J.Stewart left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.0% · EPA +5.35]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 3:59) — (3:59) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for 12-M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Marshall at CAR 21. 31-R.Marshall to CAR 49 for 28 yards (12-M.Jenkins). [WPA -26.7% · EPA -4.21]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 33:40) — (3:40) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle intended for 12-M.Jenkins INTERCEPTED by 23-S.Martin at ATL 45. 23-S.Martin to ATL 33 for 12 yards (88-T.Gonzalez). [WPA -11.6% · EPA -4.07]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 39:49) — (9:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 84-R.White. PENALTY on CAR-20-C.Gamble, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at CAR 37 - No Play. [WPA +7.3% · EPA +3.58]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 43 dropbacks · 51.2% completion · -3.8% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +5.38 total EPA
• J.Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) · 27 dropbacks · 55.6% completion · +0.8% CPOE · +0.48 EPA/play · +12.86 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Carolina Panthers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.14 vs +0.04), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 10 drives, +3.47 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Carolina Panthers: 11 drives, +10.25 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Carolina Panthers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Delhomme (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 56:20 · CAR 17 · Score 3-0
   (11:20) 1-J.Elam 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
2. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 51:19 · ATL 1 · Score 3-6
   (6:19) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 51:15 · ATL 2 · Score 3-7
   4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
4. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 42:32 · ATL 4 · Score 3-13
   (12:32) 17-J.Delhomme pass short right to 89-S.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-24-T.Hill, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
5. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 42:26 · ATL 2 · Score 3-14
   4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
6. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 36:00 · CAR 1 · Score 9-14
   (6:00) 44-J.Snelling left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 35:56 · CAR 2 · Score 10-14
   1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
8. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 31:12 · ATL 4 · Score 10-20
   (1:12) 17-J.Delhomme pass short left to 89-S.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-89-S.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
9. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 31:08 · ATL 2 · Score 10-21
   4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.
10. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q3 24:25 · CAR 6 · Score 13-21
    (9:25) 1-J.Elam 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Pittman, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
11. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 13:50 · CAR 3 · Score 19-21
    (13:50) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 87-J.Peelle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-20-C.Gamble, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on CAR-23-S.Martin, De
12. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 2:15 · ATL 45 · Score 19-27
    (2:15) 28-J.Stewart left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 2:07 · ATL 2 · Score 19-28
    4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-7-J.Baker.